Key Levels The chart shows the Bitcoin MVRV (modified version, excluding BTC that hasn’t moved on-chain for over 7 years). Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is a key metric for evaluating Bitcoin’s valuation. It calculates the ratio by comparing Bitcoin’s market value (current price multiplied by total circulating supply) to its realized value (the weighted average price of all Bitcoin based on their last on-chain movement). The standard MVRV includes all Bitcoin, even those that may be lost, burned, or held long-term. These coins typically have a very low realized value (since their last movement occurred when Bitcoin’s price was much lower than current levels). This can distort the metric during market cycles, especially making it appear overly high during bull markets. By excluding BTC that hasn’t moved on-chain for over 7 years, this modified version primarily reflects the valuation of actively circulating supply (i.e., Bitcoin that has moved within the last 7 years). The MVRV ratio reflects the valuation state of the Bitcoin market and can help analyze whether the market is overheated (overvalued) or undervalued. Specifically— MVRV > 1: Market value is higher than realized value, indicating that holders are overall in profit. The higher the value, the more overheated the market might be, and investors may lean toward selling to lock in profits. MVRV < 1: Market value is lower than realized value, indicating that holders are overall at a loss. The lower the value, the more undervalued the market might be, potentially signaling a buying opportunity. MVRV ≈ 1: Market value is close to realized value, indicating the market is relatively balanced. Practical Applications— • Market Sentiment Analysis: MVRV can help gauge market sentiment and identify potential tops or bottoms. For example, high MVRV may signal increased selling pressure, while low MVRV may signal buying opportunities. • Cyclical Trends: Historical data shows that MVRV has predictive capabilities during Bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles. • Long-Term Investment Reference: Long-term investors may use low MVRV to identify buying opportunities, while short-term traders may focus on high MVRV to determine selling points. In summary, MVRV is a metric that measures the deviation between Bitcoin’s market valuation and its realized value. It reflects market sentiment and potential investment opportunities, making it one of the essential tools in on-chain analysis.