On-Chain College|Nov 06, 2025 15:27
Here is important nuance that helps segregate your emotions from trading/investing.
Don't ask yourself 'Do I think this is the start of the bear market?'
Ask yourself 'Does the data suggest the higher probability outcome is that the bear market has started?'
My answer, when I ask myself that, is that the data does NOT suggest the bear market has started as this dip looks structurally similar to prior local bottoms this cycle.
That does not mean that the bear market has not started yet.
It simply means that I let the data dictate my trading plans and not my emotions.
If you understand this clearly, congrats. It becomes simple after you get it.
But this is where I see so many people mess up. It's the frustration and mismatched expectations of where Bitcoin is now in November versus where they wanted it to be that lead them to capitulate, not the data at hand.
Important lesson there.(On-Chain College)
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