The rise in the risk market today is attributed by many to the fact that the US shutdown is coming to an end (there is no actual information that it is about to end), which may not be entirely correct. The more important reason is that Kalshi's likelihood of the Supreme Court upholding President Trump's global tariffs has dropped to 29%. The main reason for the positive news is that the ruling that tariffs are illegal will reduce the cost of the company's supply chain, increase profits, and reduce inflation. In other words, if Trump's tariffs are determined to be illegal, and Trump has no way to maintain its new tariff measures, it will be cheaper for American enterprises to pay less taxes, get less stuck, and buy things. Especially for technology companies, manufacturing enterprises, and consumer goods industries that rely on overseas supply chains, their profit margins will increase directly. In essence, the market will have more money and less inflation pressure. Of course, it is not yet fully confirmed, but from the trend of the market, funds have started to trade ahead of expectations. The typical feature is that technology chains, semiconductors, and cross-border manufacturing, which are the most sensitive sectors to the global supply chain, are leading the gains, while defense assets and high cost beneficiary industries are performing average, indicating that the market still welcomes the reduction of tariffs. Of course, it is not that the end of the shutdown has not been responded to by the market, but rather that the greater reaction now should be tariffs. The market's expectation for the shutdown is that the two parties can reach a consensus this week and the government shutdown will end next week, but there is still no clear information indicating that a consensus has been reached so far. The shutdown is a short-term event, while tariffs affect the profit and inflation curves, and the market is more sensitive to the latter. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, there has been a significant decrease in turnover rate today. Although investors' emotions were not good during the day, with the illegal information of tariffs and the market's general belief that the shutdown should only end next week, the risk market has begun to rise under the efforts of both parties, and the rise of the US stock market has also driven up the price of BTC. From the URPD data, it can be seen that the support structure has not changed during downturns, let alone during uptrend. Moreover, as I mentioned yesterday, as long as the support structure is not disrupted, it will be easy for the price to return to the support point. Today, it has already returned to around $104000. This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Save the most transaction fees, receive the most gifts, and become a VIP on Bitget