Bitcoin dipped below $100k last night, now back firmly above $100k. The brief move below $100k has (predictably) triggered talk that the bull run is over, with the usual “Bitcoin is dead” voices resurfacing. But is this bull run really over? The chart below by @_Checkmatey_ suggests that this may not be the case. It shows a collection of Bitcoin price top models, combining several on-chain valuation frameworks, including MVRV ratios (market value versus realized value for different holder cohorts), moving average multiples, and realized price variants. Each represents a statistical threshold above fair value. Historically, Bitcoin cycle tops have been marked by clusters of model breaches, multiple indicators pushing into their upper bands. 2017 and 2021 saw broad overlap across models; 2013 fewer, partly because some on-chain metrics were still maturing and the market itself was less developed and representative. End of 2024: only isolated touches of the lower bands. Minimal breakthrough. The topping cloud remained largely intact. Currently, 0% of the models are breached. This could mean : • Bitcoin is in mid-cycle territory (similar to 2016 or early 2020 consolidation), with price discovery still ahead • A shift in cycle structure as institutional adoption reshapes market dynamics and dampens volatility (no more four-year cycles) • Or, the early stages of a longer consolidation or downturn I am leaning toward the bull run still being intact, with institutional money just at the beginning of entering the market, and Bitcoin price not showing significant signs of overheating, as the Topping Cloud chart suggests.(Dr. Jan Wüstenfeld)