
Phyrex|11月 04, 2025 20:34
After this rejection, a sharp decline in risk markets doesn't align with the interests of either party, especially with the 2026 midterm elections approaching, which makes both parties cautious about going too far. Based on current information, it seems both parties have started to compromise. If all goes well, a new agreement could be reached as early as this week, and the U.S. government could resume operations next week, easing market anxiety.
Of course, this is just my personal opinion—it might not be correct. According to data from Kalshi, the market expects a 44-day shutdown. Reaching consensus this week and resuming government operations next week roughly aligns with this timeline, so it's highly likely the U.S. government will return to normal operations next week, and risk markets may begin to recover.
Looking at Bitcoin data, there is indeed panic, and the panic sentiment is intensifying. The turnover rate has surged significantly, mainly driven by short-term investors. However, due to low purchasing power, the selling by these short-term investors is already impacting BTC price trends, while early investors haven't shown much change.
Currently, the price drop has broken below the support range, but the support level between $104,500 and $111,000 hasn't been damaged. At least for now, the chip structure at this level remains intact, with no significant reductions. Once the shutdown ends, it's likely the price will return to the support range. My long position hasn't been closed yet, but if this long position gets liquidated, I'll buy spot at $99,000.
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