[Wintermute: Despite a Favorable Macro Environment, the Crypto Market Performs Poorly, and the 'Four-Year Cycle' Theory No Longer Applies] BlockBeats News, November 4th, crypto market maker Wintermute published a long article stating that the current macro environment remains positive: interest rates are being lowered, quantitative tightening (QT) has ended, and the stock market is near its peak. However, cryptocurrencies continue to lag behind, and capital flows following the FOMC meeting are retreating. Global liquidity is expanding, but capital is not flowing into the crypto sector. ETF inflows have stalled, tokenized asset trading (DAT) activity has dried up, and only stablecoins are still growing. The overall market structure is healthy—leverage has been cleared, and positions are clean—but for a new rally to occur, the return of capital to ETFs or DAT will be a key signal. The current issue is not a 'lack of liquidity' but rather that 'liquidity has gone elsewhere.' Global liquidity is indeed expanding. Central banks are cutting interest rates against a backdrop of strong economies, a rare occurrence that usually signals the onset of a strong risk appetite cycle. However, this new wave of liquidity has not flowed into the crypto market as it did in the past. ETF inflows have stalled, DAT activity has dried up, and while overall liquidity is sufficient, the share flowing into crypto has significantly decreased. The 'Four-Year Cycle' theory no longer applies. The miner supply and halving logic that previously drove price cycles have become weak in mature markets. What truly drives prices now is liquidity.