金色财经|Nov 03, 2025 06:00
**[4E: The "Post-Halving Drop" Rule for Bitcoin May Fail; EU Plans to Expand Crypto Regulation]**
November 3 news, according to 4E observations, the traditional volatility pattern of Bitcoin after halving may be failing. Data shows that Bitcoin's current volatility is below 2%, hitting a historic low, whereas during the third halving period in 2020, volatility once exceeded 5%. Keiji Maeda, an executive at Japanese crypto company BACKSEAT, pointed out that with increased market liquidity and higher institutional participation, the impact of short-term behavior by individual investors on prices has diminished, suggesting that the so-called "post-halving correction" rule may no longer apply.
On the EU side, the European Commission is planning to expand central regulation of stock and crypto asset exchanges. The new proposal will grant the European Securities and Markets Authority greater powers, covering "the most significant cross-border entities," to promote the construction of a "Capital Markets Union" and reduce regulatory fragmentation. The related proposal is expected to be officially presented in December.
Meanwhile, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated that the company currently has no plans to acquire other Bitcoin asset reserve companies, citing high uncertainty and lengthy cycles typically associated with such acquisitions.
On the investment institution front, the latest top 15 holdings of Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF show that crypto-related companies like Coinbase (5.8%) and Circle (2.55%) hold significant weight, reflecting its continued bet on the new wave of technology and digital asset cycles.
**4E Commentary:** Bitcoin entering a historic low volatility range may indicate that the market structure has shifted from speculation-driven to a stable capital state. If EU regulatory integration and institutional allocation trends advance simultaneously, crypto assets may gradually enter a "low-volatility steady bull" phase.
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