Let’s talk about the major macro events next week: Due to the U.S. government shutdown causing a halt in official data releases, the market’s focus will be heavily concentrated on two key private sector data points (ADP employment, ISM services) and policy statements (Treasury QRA). Initial prediction: more bullish than bearish. The first event is the Treasury’s quarterly refinancing QRA on the evening of November 5th, which we’ve been mentioning for a while now. It’s speculated that the Treasury will stick to the strategy of issuing more short-term bonds and fewer long-term bonds, while continuing to buy back long-term bonds. The reason is that long-term interest rates have been too volatile over the past month, so the Treasury has to step in to stabilize the market. On the other hand, during the government shutdown, issuing short-term debt is easier to manage. The second event is the October employment report, also on November 5th. With the government shutdown forcing the suspension of official Labor Department data releases (like Nonfarm Payrolls and JOLTS), the ADP report becomes the only key alternative indicator for the market to assess the labor market. The data is highly likely to show a weakening labor market, which would be bearish for the dollar and bullish for crypto. The reasoning is straightforward: 1) ADP’s own leading weekly data shows that the four-week average of new jobs as of October 11th was only 14,000 (September data was -32,000). 2) The government shutdown and high financing costs are putting pressure on companies (especially in the service sector) to hire. Overall, this data is likely to favor crypto. The third event is the October ISM Services PMI at midnight on November 6th. As mentioned before, the sticky nature of U.S. nominal inflation mainly comes from service sector prices. Typically, we look at the combination of three sub-indices—prices paid, new orders, and employment—to assess the strength of demand and inflationary pressure in the service sector. The ongoing high interest rate environment, coupled with the uncertainty caused by the recent (October) government shutdown, will inevitably suppress companies’ willingness to place new orders and expand in the service sector. The market will likely interpret this as easing inflation, increasing expectations for lower interest rates, weakening the dollar, and benefiting the crypto market.