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TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|11月 02, 2025 04:44
Right now, the entire AI ecosystem in the U.S. stock market is basically playing the same game—a seemingly technological revolution that’s actually a financial loop in a Ponzi-style closed circuit. Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta, AMD—these companies may have different names, but they’re all working off the same playbook, inflating each other, driving up prices, stepping on each other’s toes, and pulling off a kind of ‘capital gymnastics’ that looks like a spiraling ascent to the heavens. The most classic example is the Nvidia-CoreWeave-OpenAI-Microsoft loop. Nvidia invests in CoreWeave and gets equity; CoreWeave then uses that money to buy Nvidia GPUs in bulk; CoreWeave rents those GPUs to Microsoft and OpenAI for computing power services; Microsoft then funnels money back into the ecosystem via Azure credits. After the money makes its rounds, Nvidia’s shipment volume, revenue, and profits are all boosted, while Microsoft’s AI narrative becomes even grander. This ‘Vendor Financing’ model isn’t new—it was played out during the telecom equipment bubble in the 2000s. Back then, it was fiber optic switches; now, it’s GPUs. Meta’s approach is a bit more subtle. Recently, Jim Chanos questioned Meta’s decision to extend the depreciation period for AI servers and GPUs to over 10 years, even though the actual lifespan of these devices might only be 2-3 years. By stretching out depreciation, profits naturally look better, and cash flow appears more stable. But the iteration speed of AI chips is measured in months—if you really amortize them over 12 years, even Nvidia would probably laugh out loud. As for Amazon, it invests in its own ecosystem companies and counts internal transactions as revenue; Microsoft hands out Azure credits so partners can buy computing power without actually spending cash; Nvidia funds its customers to buy its own GPUs; Broadcom and major cloud providers play the pre-sale order game; AMD is rumored to have internally confirmed revenue through ‘early recognition’... The entire AI industry chain has turned into a massive financial loop: You invest in me, I buy from you, and together we drive up the numbers. None of this is a secret—it’s more like a shared understanding. From the White House to the Federal Reserve, from the SEC to retail investors, everyone knows what’s going on but pretends nothing’s happening. Because without this bubble, the U.S. stock market’s valuation would collapse; Without the illusion of AI prosperity, the story of U.S. GDP growth wouldn’t hold up. AI isn’t a scam, but it has indeed become the most sophisticated ‘capital magic trick’ of our time. Chips, cloud services, financing, accounting, stock prices—it’s like a five-layer nested loop, tightly interlocked and mutually reinforcing. Until one day, when one of these links no longer has a buyer, this ‘AI spiraling ascent’ will come crashing down from the sky.
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