Well written, I had the same question with @ LeotheHorseman the night before yesterday I still tend to think from a casino perspective when understanding PM. The biggest change PM has made to traditional betting is actually a change in pricing logic. Originally, this thing had to be priced by Zhuang. As the only pricing party and unlimited betting party, Zhuang's biggest problem was that he did not have a good pricing model for many marginal markets, or in other words, the pricing model itself needed to add many billing restrictions to approach the formation of a sufficient house edge, which was a very high cost in itself The PM's solution, in theory, is to break down the village and turn it into a crowdsource form. This removes the restriction on opening orders and transfers the risk of dynamic pricing to the 'market brokers', which is a clever logic But PM cannot solve all problems: The pricing method of PM cannot form the logic of "market maker". As mentioned in the article, if there are no restrictions such as stock lockdowns, there will always be insider information, and exit costs are almost zero. Anyone who unconditionally spreads liquidity at market prices in this situation will lose money, without any house edge (imagine being a wild village for an uncontrollable knockoff) 2. Long tail liquidity cannot be achieved either: If you observe some early large loss addresses on Polymarket, many of them are actually suspected to be proactive attempts to sit in the market during the PM's cold start, and are basically bound to lose money In this situation, long tail stocks are basically impossible to do because they have greater insider advantages. So the main increase in PM is actually in sports lottery, and politics is only limited to a small part of the market in North America and other countries, with the rest being very weak It can be understood that the logic behind the increase in PM actually lies in the fact that for those who hold U, those who originally did not participate in betting have started to participate (due to the demand for stablecoin leverage and wealth management) 3. Large funds cannot come in: I believe that predicting the final major large funds in the market is unlikely to work by packaging themselves as hedging products, as Kalshi thought Because the major asset classes that truly need to be hedged all have more specialized derivatives, which can provide hedging for these basic long tail and extremely limited quantities This aspect can be used for narrative purposes, but it is actually not very realistic In fact, the large funds come from the real spinach industry. I have said this viewpoint countless times about the spinach industry: 1 point bet, 9 points wash If you were someone in need of washing, would you agree with me using a completely uncontrollable platform that is almost certain to have a negative EV for Zhuang Zhuang to wash? won't You will need an independent platform that allows you to act as the sole pricing party, allowing dynamic slippage and external LPs to come in and maximize the opening of orders. The difference from previous betting is that it allows for entry and exit at any time, but with added slippage points, which also factor in the risk of rolling In this way, we can introduce real BC capital and professional market makers (formerly vertical BC market owners). Of course, the trade-off in this regard is that the nominal transaction cost of PM is lower. But in the market with poor PM liquidity, the advantages of this mode are infinitely amplified This is what I mean by the PropaMM+GLP design in the prediction market. But more importantly, unauthorized pool construction should be allowed here. According to other teachers' opinions, it still does not belong to the category of traded goods and belongs to BC But I opened it up to all disk owners without permission, solving the problem of package network cheating. Similar to Uniswap logic, regulation cannot prevent it, and gamblers flock to it, reducing costs for disk owners So it's too early to predict what the market will be like now. It can only be said that there are relatively leading players in the PM model. Or, to put it another way, traditional finance like ICE but the self love of spinach novices The real investment in spinach comes in, and the demand is completely different. This part of the product is currently a huge blank