Four-Year Cycle Series (13)

In February 2016, it took 673 days after Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) surpassed realized loss (365-day MA) to reach the realized P/L ratio peak, with only a 2-day difference from the 2017 bull market top. In July 2019, it took 650 days after Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) surpassed realized loss (365-day MA) to reach the realized P/L ratio peak, with only a 2-day difference from the first half of 2021's market top. In November 2023, it took 694 days after Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) surpassed realized loss (365-day MA) to reach the realized P/L ratio peak, with only a 1-day difference from the projected $126k peak in 2025. The top three indicators in the chart are BTC price, Bitcoin realized profit (365-day MA), and Bitcoin realized loss (365-day MA). The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profit (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized loss (365-day MA), also known as the "Realized P/L Ratio (365-day MA)." This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of profits (where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (where the selling price is lower than the buying price) realized by investors over the past 365 days. In bull markets, the profit-to-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at higher prices. In bear markets, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior. Using the 365-day moving average smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is a powerful tool for determining whether the market is overheated (high ratio) or overly fearful (low ratio), making it useful for assessing market cycles and trends.