Some personal thoughts: A couple of years ago when I thought a recession was pretty likely, I was looking at the rates of change of all the metrics the NBER uses to date official recessions. Many of those things looked pretty gross in 2022 and 23 in rate of change terms relative to past cycles, and they almost looked fractally the same as a typical recession, or at least heading in that direction. I was very vocal about these findings, posted a lot of charts and went on spaces, and though I always said it was a high *probability*, there were moments when I thought we were on the cusp. But that outcome never manifested thankfully. I underestimated the fiscal side of the equation and failed to fully consider the strength of household balance sheets, as two call outs to remember. The Covid situation broke literally every chart - they all look like a big rug shake. And as things settled back down to rates of change that are more normal, it looked to me like a big slowdown in many ways. And some of those observations were true, like credit and job growth being some of the lowest rates we've ever seen. But those didn't lead to a contraction in economic growth partly because household balance sheets remain solid and asset holders are boosted by a persistent wealth effect and interest income. I've learned a lot since then. A lot of folks think I'm permanently bearish on everything which has never been true, but I have not always expressed those views as loudly as I have the risks. It's a point to grow on. Over the past couple years I guess I've just learned to keep the distribution of outcomes in my head a little wider than I did earlier in the cycle. and I haven't been as comfortable sharing my thoughts from then to now for a few reasons. I will think about how to do a better job of that going forward because I know some folks valued my point of view. Anyways that's what I had to say.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)