Interesting discussion What I mentioned yesterday about storytelling actually refers to the question of how to tell this story to the "funds" most relevant to him, in order to bring people in. As is well known, there is a huge gap between narrative and practical experience Why do I tend to talk about the 'gambling revolution'? It's because I know the market is listening to it on the front line, and it's a clear and profitable business model. A few years ago, I saw that the themes of code washing, chess and card games were all done very well in the fund market (this year's stablecoin/"non stablecoin" themes were also done very well). This is not on the table, but the amount of funds is several X, and the number of personnel is also several X Compliance and sounding 'high-end' are platform requirements, not participant requirements. Chong Tu Gou is more likely to attract customers than "automatic market makers" Returning to the questions raised by Tykoo, I think whether "gambling" is based on whether the fundamental elements that make it up are "disruptively different", rather than different positions on the same spectrum I am not talented, I have come up with a definition for GPT: Gambling is an economic system that relies on risk uncertainty as its core mechanism and achieves resource (usually money or equivalent) redistribution through regularized probability events Participants (players) have the right or contract to purchase a random event outcome at a determined cost (bet); The operator (banker, platform) assumes payment obligations and profits based on probability distribution and preset odds models; The system itself achieves economic benefits by charging a house edge or rake fee From this definition, the player side can be said to be completely the same, both purchasing a contract with a probability of a regular event occurring at a certain point in time at a deterministic price Returning to Tykoo's question, -The traditional gambling platform is buy and sell: you can only place one bet and wait for the draw, and the over round is collected based on the hand you place. Since you have a 100% betting relationship with the platform, he must add a margin on it to hedge the risk and ensure that the platform always has a house edge mathematically. Platform customer loss (sole clearing party) -Polymarket is a matchmaking platform that allows unlimited orders and withdrawals without waiting for delivery (lottery). The platform does not bet, only charges transaction fees, and does not take customer losses (socialized clearing) Don't you feel familiar with using Aster points and AVNT? By the way, the logic of Polymarket is actually very similar to the order book Perp in perpetual contracts; However, traditional gambling platforms, as long as they change the "need for delivery and other lottery draws" and allow users to share book profits and losses by injecting LP, the Overround margin will be renamed Borrowing Rate, which will actually become a product similar to AMM Perp (Avantisfi, Jupiter) The only problem that exists is pricing, and AMM Perp is solved by the three party feeding of oracle machines. However, it is evident that there is no reliable fair price for predicting events, and since prices are also discrete, AMM cannot be used. So here, it is necessary for the owner to quote in a centralized dark pool like manner, similar to PropAMM such as Humidifi on Sol. Generally speaking, PropaMM does not accept external LPs and offers their own quotes at their own risk (the trust cost of external LPs is too high). Of course, it is not impossible to let go So that's why I say that in the past, betting market owners were essentially market makers. Of course, in reality, the demand is different. The main focus is on clear house edges, and the real large capital demand behind participating in online gambling is also the same. The current PM is unable to bear the large amount of funds for online gambling, just like the previous discussion that blockchain infrastructure cannot meet the demands of Wall Street (laughs) Formally and probabilistically, the predicted market perfectly aligns with the definition of gambling. But insurance and derivatives are also in line If you think contracts are casinos, then contracts are casinos. If it is considered a market, then it is a market. According to the logic I mentioned earlier, with some modifications, it can become a new thing. Aged wine in new bottles is always the best to drink (if you don't believe it, try the distillery) If we have to distinguish, then there is only a legal regulatory distinction (from GPT): ”Is it an entertainment betting behavior? If it is for the purpose of "playing or gambling", it is mostly classified as gambling; Does it have financial attributes or information aggregation functions? If used for risk management and economic forecasting, it is classified as "financial derivatives" or "information market"“ So fucking boring Forget about these, let's take a gamble