
adam|Oct 21, 2025 18:53
Since everyone is a precious metals expert today, here is something actually helpful you can trade here (or in other things, as this happens in all markets).
So gold is now in backwardation, which means front expiration implied volatility is more expensive compared to back months IV.
Since this is a pretty rare thing to see, you can take a bet that the curve will be again soon (in contango), by selling the front month and buying the back.
I am not going to bore you with some more complex stuff, but you can basically measure the forward volatility and how steep it is between two of the expiration months.
In simple terms, selling vol is like selling insurance, and you are now selling the overpriced near-term option (high IV) and buying a normally priced back option.
The great thing about this is that since the front option is overpriced, you are creating debit positions. This means you have fixed risk compared to other volatility strategies, which usually suffer from significant tail events.
Since this forward factor is now quite high on Gold, you can get a great risk-to-reward trade by trading a calendar spread.
You just need to keep in mind that it is still path dependent, so you either hedge it or open a new one if the edge is still there.(adam)
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