金色财经
金色财经|Oct 21, 2025 03:40
**[10x Research: Purchasing Power Exhaustion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies and Whale Sell-offs Are Limiting Bitcoin's Rise]** According to a report by Jinse Finance, 10x Research posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin's significant consolidation will not last forever. Bitcoin's performance is not driven by cycles—it is determined by how much new capital enters the market to offset the exiting funds. Unlike gold, Bitcoin's price is more dependent on the net new demand flowing into the asset rather than interest rate expectations. Monitoring the supply-demand dynamics of Bitcoin provides a strong advantage in predicting the market's next move. The current market narrative is primarily shaped by two dominant crypto themes—and since early summer this year, we have been ahead in identifying these two themes. The core themes are: Digital Asset Treasury companies are exhausting their purchasing power, and the selling pressure from traditional holders is temporarily limiting Bitcoin's upward potential. We had long anticipated that Bitcoin's volatility would contract after the momentum brought by the U.S. GENIUS Act dissipates, pushing the market into a "thin air layer" during Congress's summer recess. The slowdown in news flow is expected to suppress volatility, compress the net asset value (NAV) of Bitcoin treasury companies, and limit aggressive stock offerings and additional Bitcoin purchases by companies like MicroStrategy, thereby naturally restricting Bitcoin's upward space. Our prediction that MicroStrategy would undergo significant repricing relative to Bitcoin has come true, with its NAV compressed to just 1.2x. When these analyses were published, digital asset treasury companies were still considered untouchable, praised by service provider research teams, and amplified by media coverage—long before the market began to recognize the vulnerabilities we had identified. MicroStrategy now purchases only tens of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin at a time, rather than billions—a scale too small to convince investors that new capital is driving the next Bitcoin rally. The second narrative limiting Bitcoin's rise is the market's realization that traditional wallets are selling billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin—essentially selling to meet ETF demand. We identified this dynamic early in our June 20, 2025 report, *"Who Really Influences Bitcoin Prices?"*, followed by *"How Smart Money Quietly Limits Bitcoin's Rise—How Traders Should Respond"* (June 26, 2025) and *"$8.6 Billion of Dormant Bitcoin Just Moved—What It Means and How to Trade It"* (July 5, 2025). It took the market some time to catch up to this narrative, but eventually, the driving forces ran out of reasons to sustain bullish arguments. Since June, our analysis has shown that the selling volume from these traditional holders has only matched the absorption capacity of ETFs and new market entrants, avoiding a market crash but creating a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin's volatility is bound to decrease—the optimal strategy is to sell volatility, as prices are likely to remain range-bound. Until recently, selling volatility has been one of the most profitable strategies over the past few months. Despite leverage-driven flash crashes, Bitcoin remains around $110,000.
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