Why do I say 'unpredictable': inevitable results caused by 'flash crashes',' complex systems', and accidental factors—— Let's continue talking about the coincidence in the previous article: I happened to come across the 2010 stock market crash that @ Svwang1 was discussing: "Whether it's Wall Street or the cryptocurrency industry, the essence of flash crashes is not an accident, but a mirror loop of system structure and human greed So you see: whether it's the macroscopic coincidence of the extinction of dinosaurs or the impact of meteorites on Earth; It's still a micro coincidence like the "high-frequency trading chain collapse" of Flash Crash in 2010, Or perhaps it could be a chain reaction of the 1011 cryptocurrency system, causing a sharp drop, All explain—— Human control over complex systems is limited. Most seemingly major events are the inevitable result of accidental factors in highly complex and interacting systems: A small disturbance (such as an erroneous order placement or an algorithm bug) can trigger a huge chain reaction, which humans cannot predict—— 1. Market complexity: The modern financial system (including the cryptocurrency industry) has entered a stage of "machine algorithm game". 2. Imbalance between regulation and cognition: The public often realizes the "black box" they are in after a collapse. 3. Human cycle: panic, speculation, and seeking scapegoats, these patterns are constantly repeated in traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets. So, what is the greatest use of knowing the uncertainty of the world? If you are willing to acknowledge the randomness of environmental changes, believe in and understand the "black swan", then you will not pursue perfect control, but only seek "adaptation". This is a huge progress: Knowing that you don't know is the beginning of knowing: because 'I don't know' is the safest starting point. Find a stable rhythm in uncertainty, rather than fantasizing about eliminating risks. Not pursuing absolute correctness, but finding relative optimality in imperfect information. For example, statistical arbitrage, portfolio investment, and risk control strategies are essentially "seeking order in chaos". Both the market and life are like this, essentially a practice of seeking certainty in uncertainty. The only thing we can do is to constantly iterate ourselves. I still like a line from 'Chance': Only when we encounter uncontrollable things can we truly experience this world Flash crash, plunge, separation, reunion—— Every time we lose control, the world reminds us: To live is a miracle surrounded by uncertainty. I love this world because it is full of adventures!