比特傻
比特傻|Oct 19, 2025 12:24
Ask the Bull Bear Again The question of whether the future is a bull or a bear, silly brother pondered for 2 days. These days, silly guy has been calculating his familiar secondary indicators: BTC dominance, USDT dominance, funding rates, panic index, CEX contract holdings, MVRV, UTXO age, USDT interest rates, and other indicators. Suddenly, silly brother realized that these retail and emotional indicators were malfunctioning, and in this round of institutional bull breeding, they would be the malfunctioning indicators. Institutions are the main contradiction in this round of market purchasing power. Believe you, I have heard this sentence many times. But why do you say that? Let's take a look at the data first. From the perspective of currency based indicators, ETH's ETF holdings have reached 7.2% of the total supply And BTC's ETF holdings have reached 6.7% At present, the ETF AUM of ETH and BTC is mainly achieved before July 29, 2025. Prior to this, there were almost no in kind spot purchases or redemptions. And prior to this, the estimated hedging ratio for ETF+CME was less than 20%. That is to say, whether ETH or BTC, ETF is estimated to bring in an actual purchase volume equivalent to 5% of the total. Friends, this 5% purchase of real gold and silver is enough to support 50% of the market value. What does this mean? Indicating that retail investors who play meme, defi, and leveraged contracts have all withdrawn without affecting the overall trend. What is the trend? From the data of on chain holding, both ETH and BTC are currently showing a unilateral upward trend. Even the growth of ETH is more radical than BTC. All of them seem to be one-sided increases that are far from over. In addition to ETFs, another major player is the listed company Dat. At present, the listed company holds 1.09 million BTC, accounting for 5.2%. The cumulative net increase in holdings of listed companies in the past year (approximately 2024-10-19 → 2025-10-19) was approximately 400000 BTC (range: 360000 to 430000 BTC). Among them, MSTR accounts for the absolute majority (about 36000-400000 BTC), while the rest of the companies total about 30000-40000 BTC. That is to say, the BTC held by listed companies has increased by less than half in the past year. What about ETH? 4,434,707 ETH, Covering 14 listed companies, accounting for approximately 3.67% of the total circulation And these purchase volumes are mostly from the past. Among them, BitMine accounts for the majority. What about the trend? Listed companies have no intention of stopping hoarding coins. Even ETH's hoarding of coins is more aggressive than BTC's. Let's take a look at the premium rate indicator: MSTR premium is also at 20% The mNAV of MSTR has been declining from 3.3 in October 2024 to the current 1.36 MSTR mNAV: In this round, from the high position at the end of 2024 (~2-3 ×), it has been compressed downwards to the current range of~1.2-1.4 ×; The low position is mainly driven by frequent issuance and beta drawdown, and is in the historically low percentile The fundraising pace of MSTR has slowed down in the short term. Bitmine premium at 20% BMNR mNAV: Starting from Q3 2025, there has been a fierce expansion of ETH holdings, with mNAV mostly ranging from~1 × to 1. x × for fast in and fast out; Due to the significant impact of capital expansion/announcement pace, there is a lack of a stable center. BMNR's fundraising pace continues to be aggressive Many people are worried that the premium rate of 2 cities will be ruined, but it's not. The decrease in mNAV will indeed make equity fundraising more "difficult" and costly (especially for models like BMNR where mNAV is close to 1x). But it will not be a one size fits all approach to "fundraising difficulties": companies can adjust their tools (debt → convertible bonds → ATM weights), timing and execution paths, and still continue to obtain ammunition. To summarize: 1. This bull market needs to put aside individual indicators and focus on institutional indicators. 2. From the perspective of core institutional indicators such as ETF, DAT, premium rate, etc., the bull market foundation of BTC and Eth has not ended yet. But this conclusion is not fixed. In the short term, I believe there is a higher probability of a wide range oscillation and upward trend. 3. Be wary of those who pick out 2-3 indicators from thousands and then tell you what to expect next. This threshold is too low to exclude experts, but it may also be due to a lack of in-depth consideration of market trends, changes in market structure, and history. 4. What do you think about shanzhai and meme? I think the overall death penalty and targeted resource allocation should be implemented. 5. Finally, do not rely on short-term forecasts for investment.
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