大老师Bugsbunny|Oct 16, 2025 21:38
Making a left-side prediction, also a rehearsal.
The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are likely to take the following two measures to address the anticipated risk of a technical default on short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills):
1. The Treasury will use cash (TGA account) to pay off maturing Treasury bonds.
The current TGA account is relatively well-funded, at 750k million.
So, there won’t be an actual default, only a technical one.
2. Coordinated operations with the Federal Reserve (Fed) (liquidity coordination).
For example: Temporarily providing market liquidity through repo facilities;
The Treasury might communicate with the Fed to delay some auctions or adjust settlement schedules to avoid issuing bonds during periods of tight liquidity.
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Trading opportunities:
1. At the moment when the Fed conducts reverse repos or the Treasury pays off bonds, there will be a sell-off in gold sentiment-driven funds. That will be a short-term pullback opportunity for gold. Friends looking to invest in gold can seize this chance.
2. The VIX will see a deep pullback, so you can short VIX-related ETFs.
3. Leading tech stocks will bottom out (as a large number of short positions will be closed).
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