Has the bull market come to an end? This is the third time I have written about this topic this year. The first two were in March and August, and after writing, BTC also reached historical highs, not only Bitcoin, but also ETH and BNB, let alone the US stock market. Therefore, I think my first two analyses were not a problem, which allowed me to strengthen myself Dare to talk about this topic. Is it a bull market now? In my August tweet, I mentioned that this is not a typical bull market, and a true bull market should be when liquidity is abundant. However, the current liquidity, needless to say, is not very good. From the liquidity data, it can be clearly seen that there is no essential difference between 2025 and 2022, both of which are at a lower level. The Relationship between BTC and NASDAQ Index and Liquidity But if we look at it from a different perspective, it seems that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index are not directly related to liquidity. In 2022, liquidity was insufficient, and the Nasdaq and BTC were falling. However, after 2024, when liquidity remained unchanged, both the Nasdaq and BTC were rising, especially in 2025 when the rise was even more severe. The relationship between LINK and Nike and liquidity Looking at it from a different perspective, I have highlighted the relationship between Chainlink, Nike, and liquidity. It is evident that both cryptocurrencies and US stocks are involved. LINK is currently the most popular oracle in the cryptocurrency industry and the top ranked practical application. Nike, on the other hand, represents a trendy brand of sneakers and a Fortune 500 company. They both feel more reliant on liquidity compared to liquidity. Good liquidity is a bull market for them, while poor liquidity is a bear market for them. Therefore, two conclusions can be drawn: A. In terms of liquidity, it is not a bull market right now. B. Judging from the trends of BTC and US stocks, it is currently a bull market. Why does this seemingly contradictory viewpoint arise? What should be the standard for judging a bull market, and what has helped BTC and US stocks rise? From my perspective, there are two undeniable reasons: A. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts. B. Trump became president. The change in monetary policy, although not leading to an improvement in liquidity, has resulted in an increase in risk appetite. The relationship between the US dollar index, US interest rates, and liquidity This is a crucial point. Firstly, liquidity is influenced by monetary policy, which has gradually shifted from tightening to easing. Regardless of how the Federal Reserve observes, this is an inevitable outcome, regardless of the length of time. In other words, the United States entering monetary easing is an inevitable event. There may be a pit in the middle, and it may not be smooth sailing, but this time will not be very long. The main reason why liquidity has not been fully released now is that the market has not yet seen the Federal Reserve enter true easing, and has not even implemented the cancellation of SLR and the cessation of balance sheet contraction. However, as I said, this is a matter of time, so under market expectations, the US dollar index is expected to decline. When the US dollar index falls under normal circumstances (non recessionary), investors' risk appetite will increase, and their funds will gradually shift from low-risk US bonds (due to lower yields) to higher risk US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Although liquidity has not yet been fully demonstrated, limited liquidity has actually focused on the leaders of popular sectors. This section is AI. 2. The relationship between AI and cryptocurrency AI is now both a defensive hedge asset and a risk asset that can make people make money. This foam may collapse one day, but at present, it cannot be seen in a short time. Because it is not only the risk market, but also the US government and the US president who contribute to the bubble blowing of AI. Since taking office, Trump has increased policy support for AI and science and technology, and promoted AI innovation and industrial expansion with marketization, low supervision and political orientation as the core. At the same time, another thing Trump did was to attach support for AI to cryptocurrency. (There is too much content here, and even if I say it, you won't be able to read it. So just know that there is strong support for this matter. If you don't believe it, you can ask AI.) No matter what the purpose, driven by Trump, the United States has had great political and policy support for cryptocurrency, greatly reducing the pressure from the SEC and CFTC. Technology companies, including AI, are supporters of cryptocurrency from the early days to the present, and many technology company bosses are interested in cryptocurrency. The correlation between Nasdaq and BTC Therefore, we can see that the correlation between US stocks and cryptocurrencies has been relatively high in recent years. Although there may be occasional deviations, the overall trend of the Nasdaq and Bitcoin is still highly consistent. The main force of the Nasdaq now is AI, and the technology companies representing AI are also closest to cryptocurrency. This correlation is particularly evident in 2025, with BTC's correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq index approaching 0.8 and its 52 week correlation with Nvidia reaching as high as 0.75. In fact, for many friends, there is no need to worry too much about the reasons for relevance. As long as we know that both AI and BTC symbolize future technology and non-traditional systems, attracting the same group of high-risk preference funds and institutions, and some investors consider BTC as a shadow asset of NASDAQ, with about 70% related to technology stocks and 30% to gold. Therefore, we can draw a conclusion that as long as the US stock market remains in a bull market and technology stocks (AI) continue to dominate the market, the trend of BTC will not be too bad. The question now is, if BTC enters a bear market, will the US stock market also enter a bear market? This question seems to return to whether the AI foam will be punctured. I have a hypothesis that the burst of AI foam may be the black swan of this cycle, and then it will directly enter recession, and then the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates urgently. About a year later, the interest rate will return to a low point, and the Federal Reserve will release water to revive the market. So my view on American stocks is simple. One day, if the AI foam does not burst, the rising trend in the United States will not stop. Then the price trend of BTC, which is highly related to AI and technology, will not be too bad. 3. Ta's name is BlackRock I have always been curious about the reason why BlackRock entered the cryptocurrency field, and I estimate it will be difficult to know the exact answer. However, as the world's largest asset management institution, it has entered this field. Not only has it entered, but its performance has also exceeded the expectations of many of our partners. Overall, BlackRock currently holds the largest holdings of BTC and ETH in the United States, which is not BlackRock's own, but rather BlackRock's investors. They currently hold 805194.254 Bitcoin and 3999704 Ethereum, ranking first among all ETFs in terms of holdings and overall fund inflow data. I don't remember the exact data clearly. BlackRock IBIT is probably in the top five, while ETHA is in the top fifteen, so the ranking difference is probably not very large. The biggest advantage of spot ETFs is that investors generally hold them for the long term. Today, the holdings of both IBIT and ETHA are gradually increasing. Even when the market sentiment is poor and prices plummet, the selling volume of spot ETFs is very limited. It can be said that the BTC and ETH bought by spot ETF investors are basically in a semi locked state. Until now, I still haven't seen any signs of BlackRock investors releasing a large amount of their BTC and ETH holdings. Yes, the purchasing power is not strong enough at the moment, but the selling volume hasn't put too much pressure on the market. Therefore, based on the data from ETFs and BlackRock, I don't think these investors will reverse and start selling in large numbers. So, from the US monetary policy to the support of Trump, from the high correlation between BTC and US stocks to the positions of BlackRock investors, I do see some risks, but I don't agree with you that these risks will ignite now. Instead, I see more opportunities ahead. Perhaps the trade friction between China and the United States will lead to a short-term decline in the market. Perhaps due to geopolitical conflicts in the United States, short-term price declines may occur. Perhaps there will be temporary price risks due to the conservative style of the Federal Reserve. But I always think that the current trend is good, and I haven't seen systemic risks yet. Trump is trying to delay the onset of economic recession. At least, at present, I don't think Bitcoin will not continue to rise. I don't think the bull market for BTC will end here either. Of course, I may be wrong, but that's my understanding, and I'm willing to pay for it. PS: Write it at the end. I'm not trying to convince anyone, everyone has their own opinions. All I want to do is express my thoughts. You can think I'm right, and I welcome your questioning. Actually, whether I'm right or wrong is not important. What's important is whether you can make money in the upcoming bull or bear market. When you can make money, it's a bull market. If you can't make money, it's a bull market, and it's meaningless. PS2: The Last. Actually, I still have a lot to write, say, and chat about, but the word count is already quite high, and most people probably won't be able to read it. Perhaps there is a lot of nonsense in the content I am writing, but these are my true thoughts. I am not writing so much just to pile up words, but to express my ideas clearly. I am willing to write and express myself, which is a true portrayal of my content. This article is sponsored by Bitget | @ Bitgetzh