What is the value of MET? According to the plan, @ MeteoraAG will release the airdrop query page today, and TGE will be launched on the 23rd. So, there is now an important issue: How much should MET be worth after going online? If the opening price is significantly higher than the "fair value", then selling your short shares directly at the opening is the best choice; On the contrary, you can consider taking it first. How to measure the so-called fair value? You can consider starting from the following aspects: 1. Agreement revenue 2. Other projects on the same track FDV 3. Token Economics Simply put, it means comparing the FDV and revenue data of other agreements in the same track to evaluate the scale of the Meteora project; Again, let's take a look at MET's token allocation and see if there will be sustained unlocking and selling pressure. Let's start with income first. (Note that this is not net income) one ️⃣ Agreement revenue According to @ DefiLlama's agreement, the fees revenue ranking data. In the past 30 days, fees and Meteora have ranked tenth. The specific data is 72.69M for 30 days Converted to one year, it is 872M or 0.87B This is still the time period when the MEME on the Solana chain is relatively stalled. Assuming there is still a chance for Solana MEME to explode again, this data will only be higher. Optimistically speaking, that would be an annual income of 1B. This is the transaction fee paid by all Meteora users to the agreement. So, specifically for the agreement itself, how much is the net profit? Viewing a DLMM pool page, you will find specific values in the left data area: 5% That is to say, approximately 50M of net revenue per year from the agreement. two ️⃣ Comparison of similar projects Meteora is a liquidity market making platform similar to Uniswap V3, but the trading volume mainly comes from aggregators. The project is primarily aimed at the LP community. The most obvious competitors should be Raydium and Orca, which belong to the Solana chain Compare these three projects together: Project | Fees 30d | FDV Raydium | 23.56M | 1.1B Orca | 10.94M | 0.97B Meteora | 72.69M | ? A simple comparison (although not very scientific and rigorous) shows that Meteora's 30 day Fees are three times that of Raydium, so a 3B FDV is not unimaginable. If compared to Orca, it can suddenly soar to 6B. What if we compare it to UNI, the industry leader? Uniswap | 193.7M | 6.8B By aligning UNI in this way, the estimated value of MET should be around 2.5B three ️⃣ Token Economics In addition to protocol revenue, the design mechanism of token economics is also a crucial factor. For example, the previously criticized methods of opening with low liquidity, high FDV, and unlocking sustained inflation have caused extremely high damage to the currency price. Typical case? OP、ARB、ZK、W... So what are the alternative token economics mechanisms? HYPE High proportion of airdrops (31%), high agreement revenue, and active repurchase. According to previous tweets from Meteora, it is clear that they also want to replicate HYPE's path to success. According to the updated MET token economics, there will be 43% of the token circulation during TGE (the previous 48% minus 5% reserved shares) This number is much higher than HYPE's 31%, but the good news is: Meteora does not have VC investors, which means there will be no sustained unlocking and selling pressure from VC in the future. Of course, the project team has not yet announced any token values (not even staking votes), let alone the most valuable repurchase plan. But I think there will be, it just needs to wait for people who lack faith in the project to smash their tokens before announcing it at the right time. summary Simply put, the current valuation of MET's top 1.5B is not expensive, and even slightly undervalued. However, given the 43% unlocked share in TGE, there will still be significant selling pressure. But the good news is that there will be no unlocking or selling pressure from VC. Combined with the strong revenue data of the agreement itself and the possibility of a "repurchase plan" in the future, it is completely imaginable to have a future FDV of 3B or even higher. MET