The current macro liquidity is at a turning point toward tightening. As of October 10, the Federal Reserve's RRP (Reverse Repo Program) balance has dropped to an absolute low of $4.1 billion, indicating that the buffer pool absorbing fiscal tightening shocks over the past two years has essentially dried up. From now on, any Treasury issuance or changes in the TGA (Treasury General Account) will directly impact bank reserve levels, causing the sensitivity of risk asset prices to liquidity fluctuations to increase sharply. Next comes the tug-of-war between the TGA and bank reserves. The TGA remains at a high level of approximately $807 billion, while bank reserves hover around a sensitive edge of $2.97 trillion. The relationship between the two is a zero-sum game of draining and injecting liquidity: an increase in the TGA directly consumes bank reserves, exerting a tightening effect on the market; conversely, fiscal spending leading to a decline in the TGA releases liquidity, significantly amplifying the cyclical volatility of crypto assets. On top of that, the U.S. Treasury's current strategy of primarily issuing short-term Treasury bills is causing a large amount of capital to remain in the money market, chasing short-term high yields. Therefore, after the RRP bottoms out, the next potential trigger for a major market correction could be the decline in bank reserves caused by TGA fluctuations or net Treasury supply. Of course, as long as the trend of net inflows into ETFs remains unchanged, price recovery will be equally swift.