煌道 | 交易之道|Oct 12, 2025 02:49
If we were to quantify the indicators of a bull market ending, these two are key:
1. BTC + stablecoin market dominance drops below 50%, which means most funds in the market are fully invested and leaning towards holding altcoins more aggressively.
2. BTC falls below the weekly EMA60, indicating that BTC buyers from the past year are all in a loss position, making it extremely difficult to shake out weak hands.
As for the four-year cycle and weekly bearish divergence, they don't necessarily have a direct relationship with bull or bear markets—it's just trying to draw conclusions from limited data.
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