AXB @ aixbet.ai's update preparation on Virtuals is about to start, and there is currently one day left. As a project launched in June this year, the core logic of AIxBET is actually very clear: an AI driven prediction platform. From a mechanism perspective, AIxBET is more like a "smart money following betting system": Tracking, analyzing, and predicting smart money addresses in the market Study their behavior patterns (how to place bets, when to exit, profit and loss situation) Convert data into AI signals and take action The core assumption of this logic is that there is information asymmetry in the predicted market, and a small number of smart money can continue to make profits. But here comes the first deeper issue - the sustainability of information arbitrage. If there really exists a smart money model that can be recognized and replicated by AI, then: This model will become ineffective due to large-scale replication True smart money will adjust its strategy to avoid being tracked The market efficiency will gradually improve, and the arbitrage space will shrink This is the fundamental paradox faced by all those who follow the smart money strategy. The second issue is data validation. AIxBET claims that: 3 fund pools running for 67 days • Initial capital of $30000 The final value is 77262 US dollars • Total investment return rate+157% But these data cannot be independently verified. I tried to experience its terminal and it is currently in a closed state. From the perspective of token economics, AXB's design does demonstrate some thinking: Total supply of 1 billion, TGE circulation of 500 million (50%) Unlock team token TGE within 1 year and release linearly within 6 months The profit sharing pool adopts the VE mechanism, and the longer the locking time, the higher the multiple (up to 3.25x) This design avoids early selling pressure and incentivizes long-term holding. There is also an issue of team credibility. The social media accounts of several core team members have blank content and few followers. Successful DeFi project founders, such as Michael Egorov from Curve and Hayden Adams from Uniswap, have a long track record of public construction. Their credibility is built on years of technological contributions and community interaction. In summary, AIxBET is not facing technical issues, but rather challenges in terms of business logic and credibility. At the current stage, participating is more like betting on the market heat of the narrative of "AI+prediction market". The way to break the deadlock is also very simple: more information disclosure+more active construction+more available products and services launched