看不懂的sol
看不懂的sol|Oct 04, 2025 10:05
Why does Buffett's investment method seem simple, but it is very difficult to operate? Buffett bought BYD in 2008 and gradually reduced his holdings from 2021 to 2024, Holding for over 16 years, with a total return of over HKD 53 billion (cash out of HKD 39 billion+remaining HKD 14.4 billion) and an annualized yield of over 23%. How many people can hold a stock for 13 years without moving it? How many people can experience three 10 fold price increases without selling? How many people can fall back to the starting point without panic? The average turnover rate of A-share investors is 300%, which means they hold for an average of 4 months. More than 50% of retail investors will sell within a profit margin of 10%. Over the past 16 years, BYD's stock has not been rising all the way, but rather experiencing ups and downs like a roller coaster. In September 2008, Buffett subscribed for 225 million shares of BYD at a price of HKD 8 per share, with a total investment of HKD 1.8 billion. In October 2009, BYD's stock price soared to HKD 85, a tenfold increase from the purchase price, with a floating profit of over HKD 15 billion on paper. The market generally believes that Buffett will cash out, but he has not sold a single stock and insists on holding it for the long term. In September 2011, it fell to HKD 12, almost returning to the starting point. The market questioned Buffett's "eye catching" attitude, but he still firmly held onto it. Munger even said, "I will take BYD's stock to the grave. In 2017, BYD's stock price returned to HKD 80, but Buffett has not reduced his holdings. In March 2020, affected by the COVID-19, the stock price fell to HK $33, and Buffett remained unmoved. In 2021, BYD's stock price exceeded HKD 200 and its market value exceeded trillions, prompting Buffett to begin his first reduction in holdings. In November 2022, the company reduced its holdings by 5.78 million shares at a rate of HKD 197 per share, resulting in a cash out of approximately HKD 1.14 billion. In February 2023, the company reduced its holdings by 4.23 million shares at a rate of HKD 258 per share, resulting in a cash out of approximately HKD 1.09 billion. As of July 2024, Buffett's shareholding has decreased to 4.94%, with a cumulative cash out of approximately HKD 39 billion. The remaining 54.2 million shares, calculated at the end of 2024 stock price, are worth HKD 14.4 billion, totaling HKD 53.4 billion. From the perspective of behavioral economics, Buffett's anti humanity lies in breaking through three cognitive traps: 1. Loss aversion trap: Ordinary people need to earn 25% to make up for the pain of losing 10%, so panic selling at HKD 12. 2. Short term bias: The 300% turnover rate of A-shares proves that most people overestimate short-term volatility and underestimate long-term compound interest. 3. The herd effect: When the media is talking about BYD being sold out, daring to buy in the opposite direction requires a steel like understanding. What Buffett did with BYD is exactly the same as buying Coca Cola in 1988: With 16 years of patience, roll 1.8 billion into 53.4 billion. The real secret is only one sentence: when others are afraid, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am still greedy, but start selling. If you want to train Buffett's holding determination, you can try this "10% volatility test method": 1. Choose a stock that you are optimistic about 2. Set warning after buying: write analysis report if the rise or fall exceeds 10% 3. Mandatory holding for 1 year before trading 4. Record the emotional changes every time you want to operate If you persist for 5 times, you will find that 90% of market fluctuations do not need to be reflected at all. ——Reject noise and patiently wait.
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