The weight of macro factors affecting the market from the fourth quarter to early next year. Last week, both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market were in decline. It is believed that the logic of the market at that time was only "the US stock killing valuation, the cryptocurrency market killing leverage", and there should not be many people who were pessimistic at that time. There were many pessimists in the cryptocurrency market, and there were also some pessimists in the US stock market. As discussed last week, with the economic fundamentals remaining stable and the labor market slowing down, the main contradiction in the subsequent market is the inflation trend, which determines the pace and path of subsequent interest rate cuts. So when the PCE data for August last Friday met expectations, there was a discussion that meeting expectations would slow down the rapidly declining market. That's why I posted this tweet: https://((((x.com)))/qinbufark/status/1971617497440039062? When s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market stopped falling and rebounded. Although people may look at CME's interest rate futures, which show a high probability of two more interest rate reduction meetings within the year, a deeper observation of the market actually shows that confidence is not as strong. Because there are indeed signs of a slow rise in inflation, although the magnitude and pace of the rise in the past few months have been from below expectations to in line with expectations, it is still on the rise. If it continues to rise and Powell is still in office, the market does not have such a source of confidence. I have long talked about the need for narrative in macro settings. https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/1922071470450315466? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， The weight of macro factors affecting the market varies in different time periods. From this perspective, let's talk about the macro factors that will affect the city from now until early next year 1. The most significant weight is still the inflation trend, which determines whether the next few interest rate cuts can be sustained. This is also in early September https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/1971617497440039062? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A mentioned that if we use China International Capital Corporation's calculation of US inflation for the next six months as a benchmark, there is indeed a possibility of a pause after two interest rate cuts. The three scenario simulations conducted last week show that if inflation continues to be lower or meets expectations in the future, it will be positive for both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market, and meeting expectations will have a greater positive impact on the US stock market. But if any inflation starts to exceed expectations in the future, the market may be very worried and may trigger adjustments. 2. The second weight is the labor market, preferably continuing to be weak. Of course, the current issue is the shutdown of the US government and the delay of major non farm operations. The market looks at small non farm businesses, job vacancies, and weekly initial unemployment claims. The significance of labor data lies in providing a basis for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates (continued weakness), while not dispelling market expectations of interest rate cuts (the strong rebound of data beyond expectations is also not good, but this situation is still unlikely at present), 3. The third weight is the economic situation, and in fact, the strength of labor force is also an indicator of economic strength. The economy is too strong to worry about less interest rate cuts, and too weak to worry about an impending recession. But one thing for the market is that a strong economy is far better than a weak economy, after all, the economic fundamentals are good, so the market is not much worse, although interest rates have decreased. 4. The fourth macro factor is differentiated for the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market: the US stock market looks at financial reports, while the cryptocurrency market looks at policies. Equivalent to entering the industry level: 1) The rise of the US stock market during this period needs to be verified by the third quarter financial report to see if the market has risen much earlier or if the business is too strong. The market has not actually reached its peak; In fact, compared to the US stock market, there is no need to worry too much, as AI as the main acceleration trend has not declined. 2) As for the cryptocurrency market, as a proper policy driving logic, it depends on the degree of policy deepening and refinement. Previously, there was a timetable for the pace of cryptocurrency industry policies in the fourth quarter. https://(((x.com))/qinbufank/status/1970344152983560405? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 How to view the impact of macro and industrial policies on the cryptocurrency market? Looking back at the framework of a major turnover that I first mentioned https://(((((x.com)))))/qinbafrank/status/1953370327012262397? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A: In the short term, the strength of the economy, inflation trends, and interest rate expectations will all affect the inflow speed of buyer funds. Expected good flow rate accelerates, expected poor flow rate stops, or even flows in the opposite direction; So if the inflation trend is lower than or in line with expectations, and industrial policies continue to deepen, it will make the buyer's funds stronger, and vice versa, weaker.