金色财经
金色财经|Sep 28, 2025 11:14
[CITIC Securities: Limited Possibility of U.S. Treasury Yield Rebound] According to a report by Jinse Finance, CITIC Securities' research report pointed out that after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded to the 4.2% level. The report believes that the risk of U.S. Treasuries is significantly lower than last year. While there is a short-term possibility of a yield rebound, the year-end yield center is still expected to fall back to 4% or even lower, presenting an opportunity to step in. The sharp declines in U.S. Treasuries in Q4 last year and Q2 this year were both caused by shocks from Trump, though the transmission paths differed: last year, after the rate cut, the main reason was the suppression of rate cut expectations; this year, after tariffs, the primary factor was the revaluation of term premiums. Currently, with trade tensions easing, rate cuts restarting, and risks from credit downgrades and a pause in monetary easing being relatively low, the overall environment for U.S. Treasuries is better than before. A significant rebound in the yield center is not anticipated.
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