
CryptoChan|Sep 28, 2025 02:49
Considering the significant increase in non on chain capital inflows in this round (such as Bitcoin ETFs), the current net capital inflow of 718.78 billion on the Bitcoin chain within one year is indeed not low. It should be noted that this 718.78 billion is all real money and silver buying orders
During the bull market of 2012-2013, the net inflow of capital on the Bitcoin chain increased from a minimum of 31 million to a maximum of 4.46 billion within one year, a 144 fold increase
During the bull market from 2015 to 2017, the net inflow of capital on the Bitcoin chain increased from a minimum of 1.52 billion to a maximum of 88.15 billion within one year, a 58 fold increase
During the bull market from 2019 to 2021, the net inflow of capital on the Bitcoin chain increased from a low of 37.38 billion to a high of 386.43 billion within one year, a 10.3-fold increase
During the bull market period from 2023 to present, the net inflow of capital on the Bitcoin chain has increased from a low of 128.41 billion yuan within one year to 718.78 billion yuan today, which has increased by 5.6 times
The upper indicator in the graph is BTC price, and the lower indicator is BTC: Realized Cap by Age [<1y]
BTC: Realized Cap is an on chain metric used to measure the total value of the Bitcoin network. It is different from traditional market capitalization (current price x total supply), but estimates the total value of all bitcoins by calculating the price at which each bitcoin last moved on the chain. This indicator reflects the actual cost paid by investors, excluding the impact of non traded and long-term held coins, thus better reflecting the cost base of circulating capital and holders in the market
BTC: Realized Cap by Age [<1y] is a sub metric of Realized Cap that specifically measures the realized market value of Bitcoin's last on chain movement within the past year. In other words, it only considers the total value of Bitcoin transactions that occurred within the last 12 months, based on their last transaction price. BTC: Realized Cap by Age [<1y] can be regarded as net capital inflow on the chain within 1 year
Returning to the chart, during a bull market cycle, the Realized Cap gradually rises from a low initial level to a high peak, mainly reflecting the gradual accumulation of market capital inflows and the evolution of investor behavior. Specifically:
In the early stages of a bull market, the realized cap is relatively low: at this time, market prices begin to rise, but new capital inflows are relatively limited, mainly driven by the holding behavior of early holders (such as long-term investors) and a small number of new buyers. The growth of Realized Cap is slow because most bitcoins are still priced at lower historical costs and there are fewer actual "new dollars" injected into the network. This indicates that the market is in a cautious or momentum building stage, lacking widespread FOMO sentiment, and capital mainly comes from redistribution or small-scale buying by existing holders
The realized cap at the top of the bull market is high: as prices approach or break through historical highs, a large influx of novice investors has driven significant net capital inflows. Low priced Bitcoin has been heavily moved and re priced at higher prices, resulting in a significant increase in realized cap. This reflects the market entering a frenzy stage, with experienced players gradually taking profits and transferring chips to newcomers, increasing liquidity supply, and new capital injections (such as institutional or retail buying) reaching their peak, reflecting the "wealth redistribution" and demand peak at the top of the bull market
Overall, this low to high curve highlights the core dynamics of a bull market: capital inflows shift from "small and efficient" to "massive but high cost", and is also a key indicator for judging market stages and potential top signals
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