Hanzo ㊗️
Hanzo ㊗️|Sep 26, 2025 20:02
here’s the problem with the “treasury wrapper” meta using the table by @lukecannon727 as proof > what mnav is mnav = market cap / net asset value net asset value = assets minus liabilities if a company holds 500 btc + some cash and has debt, you net it out. mnav tells you how many times the market is paying above the actual pile of assets > why this table matters dozens have mnav > 20 plenty sit above 100 some are literally 1,000+ that means the stock is priced at hundreds or thousands of times the value of the assets they claim to hold > why premiums get this crazy tiny floats and illiquid otc tickers create easy squeezes “treasury” press releases attract attention flows from crypto + rwas + ai tourists people anchor to microstrategy and assume “treasury = number go up” borrow is scarce or expensive, so obvious shorts can’t size promoters front-run at-the-market offerings and dump into the hype > how the wrapper works rebrand as “digital treasury” or “rwa platform” publish vague lines like “institutional-grade treasury strategy” mark holdings at peak prints, ignore liabilities and op losses issue shares or converts into the pump, repeat > how to read mnav like an adult ~1.0 means the stock ≈ its assets: boring but real 1–3 can be justified by operations or growth 3 needs a real story and real cash flows 10 is mania territory unless you can point to a durable edge 100 means the equity is mostly hype beta 1,000 is a trading game, not an investment > extra red flags no on-chain proof of reserves or custodian attestations “unused cash” that’s actually restricted, pledged, or offset by converts token holdings that are illiquid, vesting, or borrowed constant share issuance, shelves, and “atm” programs fuzzy language around “ai-driven allocation” or “tokenized t-bills” > how this usually ends insiders raise into strength liquidity thins narrative cools price slides back toward nav while dilution keeps grinding > ways to not get wrecked start with nav math, subtract debt, haircut illiquid tokens demand wallets or third-party attestations track share count and filings weekly treat >20 mnav as a speculation, not a treasury play if you think “arb” exists, check borrow availability and fees first > bottom line the table shows the meta in numbers: a crowd of “treasury” tickers trading at mnavs that only make sense if gravity is cancelled. some will trade well for a while, but most are wrappers around marketing, not assets. i warned you about this type of meta over 2 month ago, here's my post about ETH wrappers 👇(Hanzo ㊗️)
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