
Rocky|Sep 22, 2025 04:32
This morning, I just finished reading BlackRock's Q4 2025 investment strategy outlook, which can be simply understood as Soha AI. I am optimistic about the future! Then I checked the investment proportion of BlackRock in the AI field, and it is indeed the highest, especially the 7 golden flowers in the US stock market. Let me summarize and elaborate on it.
one ️⃣ BlackRock's' Three Axes' Approach
Now Is Good. They believe that the short term is more predictable than the long term. What does it mean? Long term macro anchors (such as globalization dividends and stable interest rate cycles) are no longer present, and no one can predict the next 3-5 years. But in the short term, there is some certainty, such as the fact that the US economy will not suddenly collapse and corporate profit data is real and visible, so we dare to continue investing in risky assets and take a good look at the US stock market. I'm drunk this morning, and even BlackRock can't predict the situation in the next 3-5 years. As ordinary investors, it's better to seize the present and make good money. It's pointless to worry about the future as a whole!
Dare to play in uncertainty. BlackRock publicly acknowledges macroeconomic instability in its strategy report, but this provides an opportunity to 'generate excess returns'. Large fluctuations ≠ certain losses, the key is to be able to pick and manage. In the past, we used to invest by lying flat and buying big stocks (7 golden flowers) to earn Beta returns, but these good days may no longer exist in the future. Now, we have to compete with stock selection and asset allocation, so the difficulty of investing will increase in the future. It is time to truly test our strength.
Grasp the big trend and lack anchors for a long time? BlackRock says it's okay, super trends such as AI, energy transition, and geopolitics are the anchors. You can't just use them as slogans, but implement them specifically in asset selection. Don't just say 'AI is awesome' in general, but choose AI companies or related infrastructure that can make real money, such as supercomputing centers, nuclear power, etc., all of which are good opportunities.
two ️⃣ Specific investment strategy:
US stocks: continue to be overbooked
The BlackRock report straightforwardly states that American companies are stronger than those in Europe and Japan, relying on profit support rather than speculative valuation. AI investment supports profit growth, and American companies reap the most dividends, so the US stock market can still run. In fact, BlackRock also indirectly stated that the current valuation of AI companies is not cheap, but "profits can support high valuations". The core logic is that AI=new productivity, so we need to continue to pursue AI.
Emerging markets&Japan: there are opportunities, but we need to choose
Emerging markets need to select targets based on major trends, such as new energy and technology supply chains. The Japanese market is very bright: inflation has returned and corporate reforms have made shareholder returns more friendly.
BlackRock prefers the exposure to the Japanese yen, as it tends to appreciate during crises and can hedge against risks. Buffett has always held five major Japanese trading companies and has increased his investments this year, which also demonstrates the advantages of the Japanese market.
Bonds: do not like treasury bond, but prefer "alternative"
Optimistic about short-term inflation linked bonds (as US tariffs may push up inflation).
Overallocation of US institutional MBS (the yield is better than that of treasury bond and relatively safe).
Prefer non US developed market treasury bond rather than investment grade credit bonds (because of tight interest margin and poor cost performance).
Here, BlackRock indirectly verifies the mainstream market thinking: 'US bonds are not good anymore', and BlackRock is looking for smarter fixed income alternatives.
Private market: opportunity has arrived
Bank balance sheet reduction → private credit fill in the blank → higher yield.
Infrastructure equity is also attractive, with low valuations and supported by major trends such as energy transition and digital infrastructure. This means that money will flow from banks to the private equity market, which is a long-term trend, such as KKR funds.
three ️⃣ Key focus on AI, AI is the future highlight
BlackRock's attitude towards AI is not short-term hype, but a new anchor for the economy. Offset weak consumption: US consumption has slowed down, but corporate investment in AI infrastructure (chips, computing power, software, energy) is skyrocketing, contributing increasingly to GDP.
The strong infrastructure investment in AI will drive up corporate profits. This year, the US stock market is not relying on valuation expansion, but on real profit growth, especially the "Big Seven". In the long run, there have been almost no five-year profit growth in history that has exceeded 15%, but BlackRock believes that AI may be able to break this record.
We have calculated BlackRock's position data, and currently BlackRock is fully committed to the AI track. Their logic is not "AI stocks rise in the short term", but "AI makes the entire US stock profit center move up", which is more realistic and certain than pure concept speculation.
Overall, if you are a US stock investor, BlackRock's revelation tells us that in the short term, don't be afraid of overvaluation in the US stock market, because profits are truly supported (especially in AI stocks). But don't forget to diversify: the US stock market is the main battlefield, but Japan and some emerging markets are bonus points.
The idea of bonds should be changed. Don't focus on treasury bond, but consider inflation linked bonds, MBS and other alternatives. The private market is an opportunity, and if there are channels, private credit and infrastructure investment will be very popular in the coming years.
AI remains the core theme: this is not a flash in the pan, but a productivity revolution that needs to be given sufficient weight in investment portfolios.
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