飞凡
飞凡|Sep 21, 2025 11:56
Two key data points next week (GDP revision and PCE inflation data) are unlikely to bring any surprises—pretty uneventful. We can probably stop considering macro-driven market moves for now. In fact, for a long time to come, the interpretation of various data will likely boil down to: the economy isn’t great but not terrible, and inflation remains stubborn. The final Q2 GDP growth rate will most likely stay around 3.3%, with its underlying structure still propped up by net exports and inventory effects, giving the illusion of strength. But the real final sales and corporate profit quality are just mediocre. Additionally, there’s a high chance that August’s core PCE year-over-year will remain the same as July’s at 2.9%, with a core month-over-month rate of 0.2%. Inflation just won’t come down. These two data points combined will only reinforce the consensus that high interest rates will stick around longer. Of course, this is the Fed’s consensus. The market’s consensus, on the other hand, is still hoping for a big liquidity injection. In other words, the future of the crypto market will still need to be driven by internal factors. Right now, there are probably only two pillars that could spark a wild crypto rally: 1. SOL’s DAT—can it kickstart a new round of Solana’s DeFi flywheel? 2. The market expansion plan of the largest on-chain exchange, HyperLiquid. Historically, October is an uptrend month in most years. It won’t be long before we see who will lead the final rally of the year.
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