qinbafrank
qinbafrank|9月 19, 2025 06:43
Actually, it's not like that. When the market goes up, there are expectations and imaginations, and people are more willing to take a long view. People think that macro shock risk is slower than market turn, but the fact is that market turn is slower than macro risk impact. In the early stages of macro risk, the market may fluctuate at a high level but it is not immediately confirmed. At least after the risk accumulates to a certain extent, it begins to turn, and then suddenly turns sharply downwards. Of course, from this perspective, the cryptocurrency market is more driven by funds and emotions, and reacts earlier than the US stock market. If you look at the past trend of the US stock market, if there is a macro risk impact, it must be a high-level oscillation consolidation, and then continuously confirm the macro risk until the risk accumulates to a certain extent before changing direction. The adjustment from the first quarter of this year to mid April, I talked about at the end of January at https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1883689330235134429? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A expects at least one or two mid level adjustments in the US stock market this year. At that time, the US stock market was still very strong, with the Nasdaq and S&P reaching new highs in mid February, until February 21st when the US stock market began to decline. Then in the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, in fact, there were several real estate mortgage lending companies that went bankrupt in mid-2007. It was only in the third quarter of 2007, when the second quarter financial report was released, that it was discovered that Citibank and BNP Paribas had suffered huge losses due to subprime loans, as the first bank to fail was Northern Rock Bank in September 2007. But the US stock market did not start to decline until October 2007.
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