Pal's BTC Market Analysis - Weekly Report 9.15 Monthly chart 1) The monthly chart is too large, except for big shots and long termism, the monthly chart is just a reference in trading. 2) First of all, let's talk about the big picture. After BTC broke through 70000, it has already reached another level. I don't think we may see BTC below 70000 again. If one day a big black swan pins into the vicinity of 6, then do it 。 So currently, in the long run, BTC is on a bull market like the US stock market, so everyone can shout out predictions of 100W from various big shots, it's just a matter of time. 3) Setting aside imagination, faith, and speculation, looking back at current trading, BTC is still on an upward trend. However, after various favorable factors have been realized and without more capital inflows to drive it, the volatility is actually decreasing. In a wave of rising money, a new round of consolidation is needed. 4) So it can be seen that the third quarter of 789 has been fluctuating around 107-123 for three months, or it can be said that 107-116 (physical K) has been fluctuating. Because there is a rate cut this week, from a monthly perspective, we need to see if we can stand at 116. If we can stand at 116, there is a certain probability that we will continue to rise and reach new highs. Otherwise, it is necessary to pay attention to a pullback (oscillations that cannot rise will further increase liquidity). Weekly chart 1) K-line structure: After the weekly line was pushed up and plundered, it fluctuated and fell before rebounding. Last week, it was said that the liquidity gap of FVG on the weekly line at position 1168 would definitely be filled, and it has already been filled. The key now is 1195, and we refuse to continue with a volatile pullback. The target below is 105-98, which is an important support at the weekly level. If you break through and come back to stand firm, it may reach a new high. 2) This week's key macro September 18th 2:00 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting The current expectation is a 25 basis point interest rate cut. The current point of the game is whether it is 25 or 50, and whether 50 will cause recession concerns. One is the dot matrix pattern, how much will it decrease this year. 3) Personal opinion: This week is a game week because the clear liquidity target mentioned last week has been achieved. The key game point is currently between 116-1195, which is a critical position. Pay attention to the price response here. Should we directly break through and continue to reach new highs, or refuse to decline. Daily chart 1) The black range is the daily fluctuation range and also the market fluctuation range of 1073-1233 for this quarter. 2) You can see that after stepping back on range - L and building an eql, it is currently rebounding upwards. The current market is fluctuating at range eq. That's still EQ standing firm, I think it will continue to rise. Focus on the range of 118-1195 first, and then move up to the vicinity of range-H 123. If EQ refuses to go down here, let's first take a look at the price response of position 112. 3) Operation suggestion: It is not recommended to short BTC before the interest rate cut. You are only doing short-term trading in the short term. After the interest rate cut, pay attention to the price response in key areas before looking for short selling. At present, there are still multiple positions, and EQ positions are mainly focused on short positions. If you give a large callback to position 112, you can also pay attention to long opportunities. Hour chart 1) Here we repeatedly talk about the current testing of 116-1175 H4 bearish ob, followed by the construction of oscillations The whole weekend was dominated by bearish and bullish fluctuations on the upper side. Here, it is believed that not breaking the 115 bullish ob is looking upwards, which is also the EQ position mentioned by the daily chart above. If it falls below here, we need to pay attention to whether it will return to 112 (currently it may not be particularly large).