qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Sep 14, 2025 12:50
1. This crypto wave seems to be driven by a combination of fundamental changes in expectations and external capital influx, both of which are policy-driven: The consensus around Bitcoin ($BTC) is growing stronger, with penetration/adoption rates gradually increasing. Asset tokenization is changing the fundamentals for $ETH and $SOL, which is also attracting capital inflows. Of course, there’s also a speculative and emotional component involved. 2. The sustainability of fiscal expansion hinges on whether it can genuinely drive economic growth. If economic growth outpaces the rate of deficit increase, the debt-to-GDP ratio will decline. 1) At the same time, higher tariffs are generating $300–400 billion or more in annual tariff revenue, which can essentially cover the annual deficit increase from the implementation of the "Big Beautiful Bill" (estimated at $5 trillion over 10 years). 2) If interest rates are lowered again, Bank of America previously calculated that for every 1% drop in rates, U.S. government interest payments could decrease by nearly $300 billion (current annual interest payments exceed $1 trillion). From this perspective, with AI accelerating its expansion, I believe fiscal expansion during Trump’s term is sustainable. 3. Short-term inflation pressure stems from the transmission of tariff rates. In August, there were slight signs of goods inflation. Previously, I discussed here: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1962686692680400973?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A about how tariffs might moderately rise toward the end of the year and early next year, potentially peaking. In reality, as long as there’s no supply shock (like the global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic), inflation is unlikely to rise significantly. Moreover, the base effect of inflation will likely come into play later.
+5
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads