
闻哥华尔街交易师|Sep 08, 2025 05:20
In the trend operation of the cryptocurrency market, the sideways consolidation in the upward trend often hides key signals. When the price forms a narrow range oscillation (usually with a fluctuation range of less than 3%) at a stage high and cannot effectively fall below the key support level for several hours, this technical form actually constitutes a "strong relay platform". Taking Bitcoin (BTC) as an example, if its price maintains a sideways trend after breaking through an important integer level (such as $60000), and the following characteristics appear:
1. The trading volume shows a stepwise decline (reduced by more than 40% compared to the breakthrough)
2. The hourly line continuously captures long shadows
3. The perpetual contract funding rate remains positive but has not excessively soared
This often indicates that the main funds will complete the market wash through time and space, and are likely to continue breaking through in the original trend direction in the future.
From the perspective of market psychology, the reason why this form is prone to trigger a secondary upward trend is essentially the result of a power game between long and short positions. When bears attempt to suppress prices multiple times but fail to break through the support level (usually requiring more than 3 effective tests), a 'bear trap' will form. At this time, the momentum of short selling is depleted, and the reluctance of coin holders to sell is heating up. Once there is a situation where a large order exhausts the selling wall, it is easy to trigger a dual boost of short covering and buying following the trend.
The case of ENA (Ethena) is of great educational significance. In the market on April 12th, its price was sideways in the range of 0.92-0.95 US dollars for more than 18 hours, during which:
-Derivatives data shows a 30% increase in short positions
-But the spot depth book has always accumulated over 2 million buy orders at $0.92
-The volatility index drops below the monthly average by 15%
Under this structure, the market is actually accumulating new momentum. When there is a bullish candlestick pattern at the end of the sideways trend, the price surges by 27% in the following 36 hours, leading to the bulk liquidation of overly persistent short positions.
Special attention should be paid to trading discipline:
If the sideways trading time exceeds 12 hours and the position is still not broken, 50% of the empty orders should be forced to be liquidated
When the 4-hour RSI remains stable above 45 during the sideways period, it is a strong signal
3. Observe the large order transaction records of mainstream exchanges. If there are consecutive buy orders with an average value of over 500%, stop loss immediately
Mature traders will use the "sideways time stop loss method": for every 4 hours of sideways trading below the key resistance level, the short stop loss level will be raised by 1/3 of the amplitude. For example, if the horizontal range is 1 US dollar, the stop loss will be lowered from the upper edge of the range to below 0.33 US dollars every 4 hours. This dynamic risk management can effectively avoid significant losses caused by sudden surges.
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