
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital|Sep 03, 2025 19:00
From Monday's BI Report (#27): Mind the Gap
SOPR as a Gauge of Capitulation
Assuming history preserves its rhythm and further contraction is possible, one key tool to track top-buyer capitulation is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This ratio compares the spot price to the cost basis of top buyers who are actively selling.
Currently, the 7-day moving average of <2-month holders’ SOPR is at 0.99, above the historical capitulation zone of <0.98. This suggests that, while pressure has mounted, the typical extreme bear condition—where top buyers accelerate loss-realization—has not yet occurred. In other words, the market has weakened, but capitulation remains incomplete...
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