BTC hit 12.2w when it broke above the short-term holder cost basis (+1 standard deviation), marking another phase top in this bull market. The current price has retraced to near the short-term holder cost basis. Note: The short-term holder cost basis refers to the average purchase price of coins held on-chain for less than 155 days. The calculation of standard deviation uses the average value of short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) over the past four years. Setting the upper boundary at +1 standard deviation and the lower boundary at -1 standard deviation helps identify abnormal fluctuations or trend changes in the data. The upper boundary (+1 standard deviation) indicates the market is “heated” in the short term, while the lower boundary (-1 standard deviation) indicates the market is “cooled” in the short term, assisting investors in evaluating whether the market is in a high-risk or low-risk zone.