Where is Bitcoin headed from here? Global M2 offers a clue. Historically, changes in M2 often precede major moves in BTC, usually with a lag of a few weeks. When global money supply expands, it creates tailwinds for risk assets, and vice versa. Looking at the current data, a pattern is emerging. The latest M2 data suggests that a liquidity peak formed in September, with data showing M2 has started to decline from its recent highs. In the past, such peaks have often preceded multi-week slowdowns in BTC performance, especially when combined with policy tightening or large-scale Treasury issuance. This indicates that overall liquidity conditions may weaken in the fall, a trend that aligns with the expected liquidity outflows from the U.S. Treasury's upcoming TGA replenishment. While this is not a guarantee of future trends, this precedent highlights a potential shift in the macro environment. For now, global monetary flows remain a key indicator to watch closely.