It's like everyone forgot Q3 2022 when CPI was still >7% and Fed Funds futures were pricing a total collapse in policy rates by Christmas because it expected recession and return of ZIRP. It's like everyone forgot Q1 2024 when the market priced in 8-10 (TEN!) rate cuts in 2024 despite NFP still rising >150K jobs per month and wage growth >5%. Expectations can be very wrong.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)