
qinbafrank|Aug 15, 2025 01:49
Why does Lao Ma care so much about Tesla's short positions? Because he has always been concerned and suffered greatly back then. After Tesla's stock price began to soar at the end of 2019, many people do not remember that Tesla's stock price fluctuated for more than five years from 2014 to 2019, and even fell back to the price of 2013 in mid-1919. The surge in Tesla's stock price in 2013 was due to the launch of the Model S. Since then, the market's view of Tesla has been polarized, with supporters believing that this is the future, while opponents believe that it has been losing money, the range is a problem, and sales cannot rise. Even though the Model 3 doubled in a short period of time after its release in 2017, the production capacity was hell in the short term, and the problems with the production line shook for another two years. It was not until the Shanghai factory was put into operation in 2019, with a breakthrough in production capacity and a booming supply and sales market for electric vehicles, that they truly emerged from the oscillation zone and ushered in the second wave of significant growth.
In the years 14-19, there was a crazy game between long and short positions on Tesla. During those years, Tesla was consistently among the top few short sellers on the US stock market. Many Tesla holders were tortured up and down during those years, and I was also a witness to it. Lao Ma has been deeply affected. He is not only concerned about the bears now, but also about them back then. He has publicly shouted many times before. For a pragmatic idealist, one should deeply abhor those who short their own business.
A while ago, I talked to a friend about Tesla's trend since 2022, which is very similar to the trend from 2014 to 2019. It is also a long period of wide range oscillation, which is a stage where both bulls and bears have sufficient reasons:
1) Looking at autonomous driving, future autonomous travel networks, robots, and energy infrastructure (batteries, charging stations, solar energy) from multiple perspectives;
2) Short sellers see a single product, weak sales, scattered energy of old horses, and the distant landing of new narratives.
When can I come out?
The implementation of autonomous driving is becoming popular, and the prototype of the future autonomous driving travel network can be seen at home. Robots are also starting to be mass-produced, which is estimated to be a period when Tesla can break out of the oscillation zone and once again step onto a new level.
In fact, Tesla's stock price has gone up two major steps in the past decade: 1) In 12-13, due to the Model S stock price soaring more than tenfold, the market value increased from several billion US dollars to 40-50 billion US dollars, and then fluctuated for five years;
2) In 2019, the production capacity hell was solved, and the supply and sales were prosperous, soaring again by less than twenty times. From the second half of 2019 to the end of 2021, the market value increased from several billion US dollars to a peak of 1.5 trillion US dollars, and then entered a volatile range again.
I look forward to getting out of the shock soon and taking another big step forward.
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