
Phyrex|Aug 12, 2025 08:57
From the perspective of mNAV, SBET and BNMR are worth buying
The recent rise in ETH prices has been reported by many investors as a strategic reserve for the two US stocks, and both stocks have experienced a rise of dozens of times before falling several times. So, are these two stocks still worth buying?
The main reasons for the decline of SBET and BNMR at the beginning were mainly ATM (simply understood as issuing and selling stocks) and mNAV (simply understood as the premium rate of cryptocurrency stocks). MSTR had experienced both of these reasons before, and a large part of the reason for MSTR's halving after rising to $543 was due to the high premium rate of ATM+mNAV.
According to the MSTR approach, as long as the mNAV is not unreasonably high, it is a leveraged BTC for investors. Holding MSTR is equivalent to going long on BTC, and MSTR is the only legitimate "Bitcoin" in the US stock market. Therefore, as long as the price of BTC rises, the trend of MSTR will not be too bad.
Before conducting a specific analysis, let's first determine the calculation method for mNAV. I would like to thank @ jasonnotes0206 and @ leechan1688 for their tips. At the beginning, I only used a simple method:
mNAV = market price / Net Asset Value
But in reality, debt and cash reserves were not taken into account, so the modified formula should be:
mNAV = (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) / Net Asset Value
From the current mNAV of SBET, as of today, its market value is 2.23 billion US dollars, holding 598800 ETH, which is 2.57 billion US dollars at the current price. However, SBET's short-term liabilities are zero, and there is still 1.37 million US dollars in hand. Therefore, according to the formula, SBET's mNAV is less than 1, only 0.867, which represents the total value of SBET, lower than the total value of holding ETH. In this case, it can be understood that SBET is undervalued.
Of course, this is only a part of the understanding. If SBET data is falsified or some ETH is sold, it is another matter. Therefore, based on the current data, SBET should have a 14% upward potential with ETH prices remaining at $4300.
Remember, if the ETH price remains at $4300, it is normal for the market value of SBET to be equal to the total value of ETH held.
In the same way, let's take a look at BNMR. BNMR has a total market value of $6.62 billion, holding 1150263 ETH with a total value of $4.95 billion, total liabilities of $1.63 million, and cash in hand of approximately $500000. According to the formula, BNMR's total market value is higher than the total amount of ETH held, so mNAV is equal to 1.337. Theoretically, if BNMR has no other business, its market value is slightly higher, by 33.7%.
Of course, it cannot be calculated directly in this way. After all, BNMR is currently the US stock with the largest holdings of ETH, and its position is similar to MSTR, both of which are leaders in cryptocurrency stocks. It is normal to have a slight premium.
So my personal opinion is that if SBET falls below net worth, this opportunity is equivalent to buying ETH at a discount of about 14%, which is equivalent to buying ETH at the current price of $4300 for $3700. The cost-effectiveness is relatively high.
And BNMR still has a premium of 1.33 times, indicating that funds are very optimistic about BNMR's leading targets, but the higher the premium, the greater the risk of accepting orders.
To put it simply, now SBET is cheap and BNMR is expensive. If you want to take advantage of it, look at SBET. If you want to gamble and win, look at BNMR.
This article is sponsored by Bitget | @ Bitgetzh
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