飞凡
飞凡|Aug 04, 2025 07:12
This week is still dominated by macro fluctuations, and BTC is likely to fluctuate between 112000-118000 The main sources of fluctuations are the US stress tests, huge treasury bond and economic data. The US Treasury Department will issue a large number of new long-term treasury bond for three consecutive days (August 5-7). If the treasury bond bond auction is not going well, such as the enthusiasm of buyers is not high, In order to attract investment, the yield of US treasury bond bonds may be forced to rise. On the same day (August 5th), the United States will release the July ISM Service PMI data, which basically reflects whether the US economy is thriving. If the data is strong (such as above 55), the market will worry that the Federal Reserve may reignite interest rate hikes, and the US dollar will strengthen in the short term, putting pressure on non US assets including cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, the interest rate decision to be announced by the Bank of England on Thursday (August 7th), as previously mentioned, is essentially equivalent to Europe believing that the US dollar is about to peak, which can be said to be a boost to the sentiment of all risk assets (cryptocurrency circles). Judging from the current market sentiment and situation, the plot rate is likely to be: the treasury bond auction in the United States passed smoothly, the economic data was not hot or cold, the Bank of England released a moderate dove signal, the long and short forces offset each other, and Bitcoin saw repeatedly between 110000 and 120000. Of course, it is also possible that the US treasury bond bond auction went very smoothly, and then the economic data was weak, and BTC began to break through upward.
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