看不懂的sol
看不懂的sol|Jul 30, 2025 13:08
What is the most scarce asset for investors in the current market? In fact, the most scarce is the principal. Without capital allocation, I demand to do things that only immortals can do. The principal is not enough, and I cannot afford the 15-20% annualized return, so I am trying to buy demon coins and lack patience for high-quality targets. ------------------------- What should small funds look for when it comes to compound returns? If you have no principal, let alone 20% or 30%, it's better to start investing at the age of 25, even if you have 1 million principal. Who can get 20% in the first few years? Does learning not require a cost? The minimum time it takes to walk out is usually 3-5 years, which means that you will be around 30 years old from the beginning without losing money. The greater probability is that you have just entered the market and your capital has been fluctuating for several years before being cut in half. Not to mention earning 1 million first, I'm afraid the 50 million in my hand has already turned into 25 million. Even if you turn from 50 to 100 at the age of 30, it's still considered a good realization, but more importantly, you have exited the market. If everything goes smoothly, starting from the age of 30, you will have 100000 yuan worth of investable cash, which must be the kind that even if you lose it, it won't be a pity and won't affect your life. Even if your compound rate of return is 20% per year, working for 20 years is 38 times, which means 100w becomes 3800w. This is still far from the daily life of internet celebrity models, luxury homes, and sports cars that you have imagined. Not to mention being 50 years old, even at the age of 40, one's temperament has already worn down and passion has long disappeared. To put it plainly: Dior can't even stand up anymore, no matter how big the house is, it feels empty, and no matter how strong the Ferrari is, it can't spark more interest from you. And at this point, do you expect a girl to like a 50 year old dog? It's good not to give you medicine at night. A high compound yield is built on your extremely strong holding and investable funds. I personally think that if you have at least 500 million yuan of idle money, and then talk about so-called value investing, you still need to control your position. Not only do you need to look at the quality of the company, but you also need to look at the market beta. Just try to remove the beta of the market and calculate the compound rate of return for those so-called high-quality companies in your A company? After I came out to take over the family business, I realized that not only myself, but also all the old money had a fixed income and self retention land behind it, providing a continuous stream of cash income far exceeding the market rate of return. That's also why I don't think highly of families in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen who rely on real estate as their foundation: they are too far away from industrial capital, and their understanding of fixed income only comes from bank wealth management and rent. These entrepreneurs, even if they invest, focus on a tough market. I have really seen a local highway owner who bought a hedge from the top of BTC during the 21 bull market cycle, replenished the position until the end of 2022, and then cashed out in 24 years (only to find out that he sold out). How many people have this ability? Another example is Japan. After the real estate foam burst and the balance sheet declined, many enterprises actually fell into technical bankruptcy. But since they still have good cash flow income, if they really go bankrupt, it will be a complete failure, so it is even more impossible to expect them to continue expanding their balance sheet. We can only rely on our annual income to slowly repay debts and repair our balance sheet, similar to how residents in first tier cities collectively queue up to repay loans today, filling in the holes of previous excessive expansion. This process took Japan 30 years. So if you want to enjoy life, you need YOLO, which focuses on high concentration, only doing things with the highest certainty and maximum profit. It's Soros' saying: Investment is not about what you do right or wrong, but about how much you earn when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. Don't listen to value investing and annualized compound returns for petty investors. They are just poor people and losers finding excuses for themselves. Seize the opportunity and work hard. Isn't this the path we took at the beginning of the founding of our dynasty? Should we take the value route; Seizing the market bit by bit? Do you see others giving you a chance? So you need to look for reliable fixed income. Isn't the biggest problem for ordinary people the contradiction between essential expenses and compound interest? For the wealthy, it is the simplest math problem: suppose you have a large amount of capital and an annualized fixed income of 5%, and then face a mandatory consumer product (which means it will definitely depreciate), how can you satisfy yourself while maximizing your benefits? The fixed income of ordinary people is nothing more than working, so discussing compound rate of return without work or income is just talk on paper.
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