
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 28, 2025 08:26
There are indeed many macro events and data this week, but they are basically stable and there won't be too many problems. After the US Japan talks, the United States should be able to eat enough for a while and take a break. The progress in Europe is also relatively smooth, with only China and the United States remaining in the tariff narrative. However, from the previous two rounds of talks and Trump's understanding that China will remain invincible as long as it does not provoke China, there will be no major problems.
It should have been the consensus of the market that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this month. After Trump inspected the Perfect Federal Reserve last week and pressured Powell in public, all the cards that should be played have been played. It is certain that some tacit understanding will be reached, and the heat created by the "door decoration" event should also be eased.
The estimated non farm payroll data will also continue the previous trend, with internal hedging, neither too good nor too bad. Since the September interest rate cut has been set, providing a data that is acceptable to both stable and positive markets is sufficient.
PCE is estimated to continue the previous trend of CPI, with inflation rebounding due to the impact of tariffs.
For the US stock market, it is important to track Robinhood on July 30th and Circle on July 31st. Because the entire Q2 cryptocurrency market has risen well, both trading volume and stablecoin inflows are increasing. It is believed that the performance will not be bad, even better than Q1, and the financial report may be better.
The overall trading strategy may be to engage in ultra short term trading with sudden ups and downs in response to information disclosure.
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