🧵 Interpretation of the essence of Arthur Hayes's latest long article Time Signature—— Arthur Hayes predicts that the year-end targets are $250000 for Bitcoin and $10000 for Ethereum. ERC-20 sector: will become the most explosive alpha gathering place in the field! Will Crypto become the last buyer of the US Treasury cycle? 1/ Hayes uses' dancing 'as a metaphor for investing: Music has a beat, dancers need to step on the rhythm accurately; The market also has a rhythm, and investors must recognize the 'time signature'. And this rhythm generator is the credit creation of fiat currency. 2/ For Hayes, the most crucial variable affecting asset prices is the rhythm of fiat currency supply. When more fiat currency is printed, scarce assets such as BTC/ETH will rise. After 2009, Bitcoin was actually the best performing "money printing hedge tool" in human history. 3/ No longer talking about macroeconomics or the Federal Reserve, what we need to focus on is the credit eruption generated by the new round of wartime economy. The American version of the 'China model' is quietly unfolding—— The state guides investment direction, banks provide matching loans, people obtain employment, and enterprises obtain "guaranteed profits". The most typical example is: Rare earth deal from the US Department of Defense, JP Morgan, and MP Materials. The Ministry of National Defense becomes the largest shareholder; Government guaranteed procurement; The bank immediately granted a loan of 1 billion US dollars to build a factory; Employment growth, credit expansion, and seemingly prosperous economic "growth". This is what Hayes called 'QE for Poor People'. 5/ But this is not free growth. Credit expansion inevitably leads to inflation. So how can the government guide this kind of inflation, so as not to let grain and housing prices skyrocket, but also to create the illusion of "prosperity for all"? The answer is: blow a controllable asset foam. 6/China is real estate, who would the United States choose? The answer is - Crypto. The proportion of young people and ethnic minorities holding crypto is much higher than traditional assets; The money invested will not flow out of the system, but will instead flow back into the US Treasury market through stablecoins; Investors get rich, government financing, and fiscal taxation kill three birds with one stone. 7/ The 'Perfect Closed Loop' Model 👇 Credit expansion → Crypto rise → stablecoin AUC increase → investment in T-bills → paying for fiscal deficit Total Crypto market value increases by 1 → stablecoin market value increases by 0.09 → increasing demand for US Treasury bonds A new financial treasury bond dance has begun. 8/ He even gave a prophecy: 🟠 BTC：250,000 🟣 ETH：10,000 🧠 ERC-20 sector: will become the most explosive alpha gathering place in the entire event Maelstrom has been fully deployed, all in Ethereum+DeFi+Shitcoins. 📌 Conclusion: Hayes' core logic is not to promote Bitcoin or shout out Ethereum. What he is saying is that Crypto has become a part of the national credit system and is the "front actor" of the new round of US Treasury boom. Same meaning as my top tweet from three years ago!