
qinbafrank|Jul 21, 2025 09:11
Using bigger bubbles to pay for the Great Beauty Act, I talked to a friend a week ago: Great Beauty is a good thing for the entire market; The stablecoin bill is a great benefit for the cryptocurrency market. After the stablecoin bill, there is also the digital asset market innovation bill. If we talk about the long-term risk, it is that we will have to blow up a bigger bubble, and the bubble will eventually burst. Today, Michael Hartnett, the chief strategist of Bank of America, also holds the same view: what we buy for the Great Beauty Act can only rely on the big foam.
My logic was discussed in detail in forwarding this morning's tweet, and Hartnett's logic is as follows:
Wall Street will arrange the "surrender" of the Federal Reserve in advance, and the US policy will shift from the "drug treatment center model" (i.e., high interest rate, tight finance, eliminating foam) in the first half of 2025 to the "nominal GDP prosperity model" (i.e., interest rate reduction, tax reduction, and tariff reduction) in the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026.
This is the only way for Trump to lower the debt/GDP ratio after abandoning spending cuts, which is to dilute the debt by stimulating nominal GDP growth. I have also talked about this before. https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/1939463414144719767? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A
Hartnett reiterated that the easiest way to finance Trump's "Beautiful Bill" is to create "a beautiful big foam". My understanding is that Trump Besant will certainly seek to continue to cut interest rates when the Great Beauty Act continues to push up the scale of US debt. Especially if Trump forcibly removes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the market will immediately interpret it as "dove turn", and the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates without recession, further blowing up the foam.
Hartnett believes that the biggest foam signal in the future will be that stocks completely ignore the rise of inflation expectations and bond yields and hit a new high.
Hartnett proposes four best trading strategies:
1) Short selling the US dollar (depreciation of the US dollar)
2) Long on gold/cryptocurrency (hedging against anarchy)
3) Short selling 30-year US Treasury bonds (Fed cuts interest rates during prosperity rather than recession)
4) Long the dumbbell portfolio of US technology stocks and EAFE/emerging market value stocks (hedge foam)
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