From the perspective of fiscal expansion 2.0, summarize the market trends of the past few months and what is the outlook for the future? Last Friday, everyone talked about the recent market trends in space and shared their voice at that time. 1. Overall, there have been two waves of market trends since mid April: The first wave rose from mid April to early June and then slightly adjusted. The main driving force at this stage is Trump's turning https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1920992310780981284? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， And the economic data, financial reports, and inflation are all very good, as previously tweeted https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1939142048801792359? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed here; The second wave is from the United States bombing Iran's nuclear facilities to the end of the Iran conflict until now (implying that the United States has not given up global leadership) https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1937022453282460130? In the second stage, there have been several major macro support measures, including the cessation of the Iraq conflict, the passage of the Great Beauty Act, and the implementation of the S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A policy The deadline for tariffs in July has been postponed (at that time, it was discussed that the market would pay again) https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1942563243664232460? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A）、 Last week's inflation met expectations and the earnings season started well, Of course, there is something special about the cryptocurrency market, as the stablecoin bill has been put on the agenda through the Digital Asset Market Structure Act. The characteristics of these two stages: in mid April, the big cake reacted earlier than the US stock market, and at the end of June, the US stock market was stronger https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1938406635736862757? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， After the tariff was postponed on July 8th, the currency truly began its main rise. 2. What do you think of the future? 1) I talked before about the passing of the Great Beauty Act, which means that Trump's policy in his second term has transited from a tightening policy to an expansionary policy, from the initial pursuit of cost reduction and efficiency increase to the pursuit of economic growth. I talked about the significance of the Great Beauty Act before https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1939463413144719767? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 More importantly, it also means that the Trump era has entered the financial expansion 2.0 after the financial expansion 1.0 in the Biden era https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1944662710404415721? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A: Tax cuts, deregulation, expanding defense and immigration spending, making artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency industries that must maintain a leading position, and striving to attract capital to invest in the United States. 2) Many people overlook the fact that the Federal Reserve is in a phase of monetary policy contraction (interest rate hikes, balance sheet tightening) in 23-24, represented by the Biden administration's "Infrastructure Act" and "Science and Chip Act". The fiscal expansion policy of "Biden economics" is the underlying support logic for market trends. At the end of 2023 https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1736780478043045934? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A and 24 years https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1792856993948148136? The two tweets about fiscal policy and liquidity, s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, have discussed this point. So it is called fiscal expansion 1.0. Now Trump is fiscal expansion 2.0. In the medium to long term, it has provided new support for the market, and it is highly likely that interest rates will continue to decline in the future with fiscal expansion 2.0 (one or two interest rate cuts this year, and another next year), continuing to maintain the judgment of limited easing in the next two years in the third quarter of last year https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1814123900399165638? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A）。 3) The biggest driving force for the cryptocurrency market lies in the wave of stablecoins brought about by the Stablecoins Act and the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, the trend of coin stock integration, and the true implementation of RWA mass adoption https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1945825731793322468? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 Fiscal expansion 2.0 is the underlying support logic for the entire macro market, while the stablecoin bill and the digital asset market structure bill are the support logic for cryptocurrency assets, which form a solid foundation for the medium to long term market. 3. What are the potential risks in the future? 1) However, I also talked about that the biggest policy constraint of fiscal expansion 2.0 is that the scale of US debt is getting larger and larger. Although there is no crisis of default of US debt, there will be the risk that the yield of long-term debt will rise to suppress the market risk appetite and impact risk assets https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1925774405071712486? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， Need to pay attention to the trend of long-term bond yields, especially the 10-year US bond yield https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1943928865866625415? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 2) In the short term, what does Trump want before the tariff deadline of August 1? In the tweet https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1945331418621731073? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A: The best scenario is for the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, and the United States to make some concessions and reach an agreement before August 1st. Trump gets most (but not all) of what he wants, and the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea can also accept it. Everyone is happy. The risk is that Trump will not give in. It is difficult for the EU, Japan and South Korea to compromise (they feel that Trump's concession is not big). The new tariff will be implemented on August 1, which will have a certain impact on the market. In particular, Trump began to get tired of being told that he always backed down at the critical moment. Last week, the Wall Street Journal said that Trump had given up firing Powell rashly only after being dissuaded by Besant. Today, Trump sent a paper saying, "I don't need anyone to explain my strong relationship to me, only I can explain it to others." The anger was ordinary. We can't expect Trump to compromise all the time. Of course, if the agreement is not reached and the landing is announced directly, I personally think that the impact should be much smaller than the level at the beginning of April, and the US stock market, which is a small-scale adjustment currency market, will naturally be affected. Then Besent will mediate, and it is also possible to further reduce the added tariffs, which will be another opportunity to get on the train. In the short term, we also need to pay attention to the trend of inflation. My personal opinion has always been that the increase in commodity inflation caused by tariffs will be offset by the weakening of energy inflation and service industry inflation https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1923195906935095776? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 But there may also be a one-time upward movement https://((((((((((((((((x.com))))))))))))))))/qinbafrank/status/1922427111148814603? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， If it appears, it will also make the market panic. Overall, the medium to long term logic is solid, and there may be several small-scale risk shocks that drive market corrections and adjustments. However, the probability of another large-scale risk shock like that in March and April is not high in my opinion.