Orange Evening Interpretation 7.18 Only Ethereum can save the shanzhai market. Today, the market finally feels a bit like the shanzhai season. The biggest difference between this bull market and 2017 and 2021 is that the market is too fragmented. In the previous bull markets, it seemed that funds were in and out of the same pool. Whether it was the big pie, Ethereum or other shanzhai, funds came in rotation, so when the big pie rose high enough, funds naturally went to chase after the shanzhai market The entire market is thriving, and this round's main focus is on fighting on its own. Most of the buying orders for the big cake are in the stock market, and most of the retail players are on the chain. The two sides do not interfere with each other, which makes CEX quite awkward. There is neither incremental capital nor active retail players. This is also why Binance has created an alpha and on chain user acquisition. Because all kinds of narratives happen on the chain, CEX cannot compete at all. If P wins the leader's spot, there will be a situation of sucking CEX liquidity. Therefore, in this round, CEX is almost unanimously external. No matter how hot you are on the chain, only contracts will be arranged, and in addition to some large VC coins on the spot, only some large VC coins will be offered. Arranging a project for our own knowledgeable alpha team, although this arrangement can bring back some users who were originally on the chain, it still cannot solve the problem of increasing funds. In addition, alpha and forced large-scale coin offerings have made the days of CEX's old shanzhai even more difficult. In fact, ETH has been in this awkward environment for a long time in this round, and on chain activities mainly occur on SOL. Binance, a large CEX, only supports its own BNB chain, ETH will also be sucked by its own L2, so even Ethereum is difficult to maintain a strong market in this environment, and other knockoffs basically follow the leader. In the past few bull markets, there was almost only ETH as the leader among knockoffs. Looking back on all the sectors we have been playing in over the years, which is not parasitic on ETH? This is also why the current market is lively, with big gold dogs, small gold dogs, and hundreds of times coins born every day, but there has never been a knockoff season. However, since various imitators have started applying for ETFs, the interest of off exchange funds in the cryptocurrency market has changed. In the past, institutions only focused on the big pie, and even if ETH's ETF was approved early, the inflow of funds was limited. Since Sol's spot ETF was approved, there has been little capital inflow every day. On the contrary, the inflow of funds into ETH's ETF has increased. In the past two weeks, Ethereum ETF funds have been flowing in a large amount every day, until over 700 million yuan flowed in the day before yesterday and over 600 million yuan flowed in last night, which exceeds the size of the big pie. In addition, Ethereum's treasury has made efforts, and the reserve funds of sbet and bmnr have both exceeded 1 billion yuan. In recent days, they have been buying one or two hundred million yuan every day. sbet even announced a refinancing of 50 yuan last night. Yi went to buy big cakes, which is completely the same strategy as micro strategy. It seems like it's not worth eating with Saylor. Many listed companies that originally had large reserves of Ethereum have also started to switch their positions to ETH. This operation is very similar to the capital rotation in the past knockoff market, where the pancake is at a high level and funds will search for currencies with higher expected returns. In addition, BlackRock submitted a pledge ETF application for ETH last night, which may break down the barrier between the stock market and CEX, allowing funds to flow into knockoffs. Yesterday, Dongji posted that most of the OTC Ethereum on the OTC market has been bought up. This means that if another listed company asks Dongji to buy coins, Dongji will rush the money to CEX to acquire them, or swap them on the chain. Sellers who sell ETH will also use the money to buy other knockoffs or go to the first tier to make new purchases. This is equivalent to... Funds have re entered the market, which is also why Ethereum always leads to the emergence of knockoffs. This is because the group image of holding ETH and holding knockoffs is almost identical, and the accumulation of funds in the cryptocurrency market over the years is almost entirely on the ETH ecosystem. Then Trump began to make efforts. Yesterday, the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act and the National Anti CBDC Monitoring Act were all voted, and now it's time for Trump to sign them. Many small partners do not know the benefits of these laws on the currency market. It's like you want to cooperate with the boss of Party A, who will draw cakes for you or verbally promise you a big order. This bill is equivalent to signing a contract and paying a deposit. The boss of Coinbase directly said that only by clarifying the regulatory framework can we prevent the impact of the Biden government in the future. Many companies are waiting for the bill to take effect, so that they can open their hands to develop new business. These three bills will not only make a lot of stability The currency generation will also bring a large amount of resources into the currency market, which is definitely a good thing at the spot ETF level. In addition, Trump opened its 401 (k) account last night to invest in cryptocurrency and private equity, which is also good. The second important thing Trump pushed forward was to cut interest rates. Now it's time to catch Powell's small braid through decoration. Trump said that he would visit the Federal Reserve in person within a week. The market has expected that Trump would use this matter to force Powell to step down. Even if he did not step down, the Federal Reserve is likely to have multiple shadow Fed chairmen. Because the Federal Reserve has been divided inside now, Federal Reserve Governor Waller publicly supported the interest rate cut in July, and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly supported the interest rate cut twice this year. The number one candidate Walsh directly supported Trump's public pressure. After Trump came to power, regardless of the policy pursued in the United States, Whether it is encryption related or great beauty, it is finally successful. It is difficult for Powell to compete this time. As early as September this year, and as late as next year, the United States will usher in a super interest rate cut cycle. According to Trump, it is possible to cut interest rates by 3%, or even directly hit the United States to zero. In short, the macro environment is expected to be very good. There is a great probability that the market will go out of the super bull market next. According to the previous 4-year cycle theory, it will reach its peak before December this year, and there will be counterfeit cattle.