
Phyrex|Jul 17, 2025 03:10
The threat of ancient whales and the expected resumption of Bitcoin contract trading under the stablecoin bill
I haven't continued to place orders since last time, mainly because I couldn't find a better time. Without a suitable event, I won't place orders. This is also my third review, so when the "stampede" incident occurred on July 15th due to the movement of ancient giant whales, I felt like it was time to enter the market.
At that time, the idea was that the panic selling caused by the transfer of ancient giant whales would not last too long. After all, as we have seen from the data, ancient giant whales would not be transferred to the exchange for selling in large numbers, and the impact of OTC on the price could be almost ignored. In addition, there was a vote on the stable currency bill at night, and Trump's public voice was very important. It was also in the cryptocurrency week. I think it could cover the negative interest of ancient giant whales, and the winning face was still large, so I placed the order.
The first order was actually quite interesting. Before dinner on the 15th, the price of BTC had been fluctuating between $118000 and $118300. At that time, I thought it would be better to place the first order at $117777. If I could eat it, I would eat it. If I couldn't eat it, it would be fine. After eating it, I didn't expect it to keep falling. At that time, before the stablecoin bill was rejected, there was no obvious bearish trend, just a simple decline. The lowest drop was around $115700, because my liquidation point was around $112500 and I didn't care.
Later, after the opening of the U.S. stock market, it began to recover gradually. By the evening, it had returned to around $117500. Then the stable currency bill was not passed. Trump directly came out and said that it would be passed the next day (July 16), and the price at that time did not fall very sharply. Even when the U.S. stock market closed, it returned to around $117000, and I gave up the expectation of opening a second order, so I took the order.
When the time came to July 16, I was waiting for the stable currency bill. At that time, the price had returned to around $118500, and then had a narrow shock. Suddenly, with the rumor that Trump was going to fire Powell, the market rose. Bitcoin rose to around $119700 at the highest. My first judgment was that this was impossible, but it was still the first tweet. After the release, the price of BTC had dropped to below $119000.
However, there are constant market voices saying that Trump is serious about firing Powell, so my feeling is that the market will be FOMO, and maybe the shock will intensify. So I choose to stop earning 80% at $119100. Every time I open an order, I get 0.5 Bitcoin, and the profit is not much, about 23%. I made a profit of about $520, and I plan to wait for the vote for the remaining 20%.
Later, it was true that Trump's repeated market shocks before the vote. At the lowest time, the price dropped to around $118500. At that time, I had the idea to make up the position again. But after thinking about it, the risk of uncertainty was a little high, and it had already made profits. After locking in the profits, it was unnecessary to take another risk, so I did not continue to write orders.
The last 20% is relatively simple. After passing the first vote, there is a second vote and the resolutions of various bills. Then Trump again shouted that the stable currency bill will not be passed until July 17, and other bills will take about two days. At this time, the price has returned to around $119300. I will directly pay the bill for $119400, and then I will take it.
The result was a smooth liquidation at $119400, with a final total profit of around $680, which should be less than 30% of the profit. Although not much, it was still profitable, and it only took one day. This time was relatively easy, without as many setbacks as the previous two times, so I think it was okay.
If the price continues to fall, such as falling below $118000 before July 18th, I may consider making another order. The game is the passage of the stablecoin bill, otherwise it will be pulled. Let's talk about it another time.
After completing this order, the overall profit has reached $9500, which is 4.7 times higher than the previous $2000. It should have been less than 4 months, and there were 2 weeks of no orders in between. Although I cannot compare with the big shots, I always place an order for 0.5 BTC and slowly accumulate to see where I can go.
I know many friends may say that for such a small order, their mentality must be different. If it were a large order, they may not have done it this way, or that doing such a small order may not reflect the real transaction. However, for me personally, I take every transaction very seriously and do not mind just because the order is small.
Because my billing is a reflection of my personal understanding of the market. If I am wrong, I will be punished immediately. If I am right, it means that my analytical direction is correct.
Of course, after all, my main position is spot trading, and contracts are just a means of testing. I often tell my friends that analysis exists for trading purposes. If it cannot assist in trading, then analysis is useless. What I hope to do is to integrate knowledge with action. If I think I am right, then I will open an order and use the final result to prove my judgment. I will clearly state all the reasons for opening and closing the order.
That's what I said and did, so the size of an order is not important. What's important is whether my understanding of the current transaction reason is correct, which is what I want to convey.
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