
Jim Bianco|Jul 10, 2025 16:25
Trump is back with another "truth" today making the point I detail yesterday (retweet below).
Trump argues that the US should have the lowest rate because it has the best credit.
I might agree with Trump; the US is the best sovereign CREDIT in the world.
Credit quality, however, is a relatively minor factor in determining sovereign yields. Nominal growth, inflation expectations, and supply determine sovereign yields.
The rest of his arguments are the same arguments for high nominal growth, higher inflation expectations, and BBB has many worried about more supply.
All these points to higher yields.
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Credit is the ability to repay a debt.
The US has the ability to "print" money to repay all its debt. Therefore, it will never default.
The problem is those "printed" dollars will be immediately devalued, otherwise known as inflation.
Under this scenario, it raises inflation expectations and sovereign yields go up. But you are still the best CREDIT in the world.
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