Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco|Jul 09, 2025 19:28
I will attempt to interpret Trump and explain why his thinking is incorrect. Trump's statement below suggests that the MAJOR factor driving rates is credit quality. Since he believes the US has the best credit quality ("companies pouring in", "the hottest country"), he concludes that we should have the lowest interest rates. This is how a real estate developer from Queens thinks about yields: the best properties should have the lowest yields. While true for private assets, such as Class A Manhattan office towers, this is not the case for developed-world sovereign yields. Credit quality is a VERY MINOR driver of their yields. Nominal growth, inflation expectations, and anticipated supply drive the level of sovereign yields. All of Trump’s “credit” statements are arguments for high nominal growth and heightened inflation expectations. Add the increased supply, thanks to the BBB, and he is really making a compelling case for HIGHER Treasury yields.
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